WEF Week 7: Ward, High Star Hero and the Numbers Behind the Modon Grand Prix
In a Grand Prix built on returning champions and heavy favourites, it was McLain Ward and High Star Hero—seventh in the win‑chance model—who wrote the latest Week 7 classic.
Under the lights, McLain Ward did what McLain Ward so often does in Wellington—turned Week 7 into his own stage. Already a three‑time winner of this Grand Prix with HH Azur (2016, 2017 and 2020), he returned this time with High Star Hero and added a fourth Week 7 title to his record, introducing a new star without changing the ending.
The 13‑year‑old gelding came in as a lower‑percentage pick on the win‑chance table, yet once High Star Hero delivered a clear in Round 1 and reached the jump‑off—where their record already included one of the best strike‑rates in the field—they looked every bit the Wellington benchmark, stopping the clock double clear in 75.80 and 39.14 seconds to secure Ward’s fourth Week 7 victory and the horse’s first win at this level.
How the class rode versus the numbers
History suggested a brutal test: an average Round 1 clear rate of 16% and a predicted six clears from a 32‑strong field, with 58% of those expected to jump double clear in the jump‑off. The course designer delivered exactly the kind of pressure the data anticipated, with just a small group advancing and only three double clears deciding the podium.
The time allowed kept riders honest without turning the first round into a pure speed class, and the final line and last oxer again played their part in separating medal positions from near‑misses. It felt like a classic Week 7 profile: one mistake was expensive, two were terminal.
Ward and High Star Hero: from jump‑off threat to Grand Prix winner
Coming in, Ward and High Star Hero were already flagged in the guide as one of the most dangerous jump‑off combinations in the field: five clears from seven previous CSI5* 1.60m jump‑offs and three wins, an almost 50% conversion rate once they reached the second round. Their Round 1 numbers were more modest, and the win‑chance model gave them just a 4% likelihood of lifting the trophy, behind the likes of Eddy Blue, Dynastie de Beaufour, James Kann Cruz and others.
On the night, they landed the part that is hardest to predict, producing a composed, faultless first round before leaning into that established jump‑off strike‑rate with another decisive clear. That performance not only extended Ward’s extraordinary Week 7 record but also marked the pair’s fourth CSI5* 1.60m win together, including World Cup success and victories in major Hamptons qualifiers.
New faces on a familiar podium
If Ward supplied the new Modon chapter, the rest of the podium spoke to the class’s broader narrative about form and consistency. Mark Bluman and Landon de Nyze, a partnership that only came together in December, turned their rapid rise—two 1.55m wins already this year—into a first CSI5* Grand Prix podium, stopping the clock in the jump-off in 39.71 for second.
In third, Shane Sweetnam and James Kann Cruz continued their remarkable big‑class record, adding yet another five‑star Grand Prix/World Cup podium off the back of an 18‑from‑21 (86%) career jump‑off clear rate at this level. They did exactly what their profile promised by jumping clear in both rounds and again converting a jump‑off appearance into a top‑three finish.
Behind them, defending WEF 5 winners Richard Vogel and Gangster Montdesir finished fastest of the four‑faulters in 37.34, a reminder that even the hottest horse in the field is still operating on a knife‑edge at 1.60m.
Nina Mallevaey & Dynastie de Beaufour: a streak with historic weight
Away from the podium, Nina Mallevaey and Dynastie de Beaufour quietly did something even rarer than winning a single Grand Prix: they extended their CSI5* 1.60m clear‑round streak to 12. Since 2010, only a handful of horse‑and‑rider combinations have ever reached double‑digit consecutive clears at this height, putting them alongside names like Casall Ask, H&M All In, Big Star and King Edward on the modern sport’s “perfect streak” list.
This Modon round also marked their 10th consecutive top‑five finish in a CSI5* Grand Prix, underlining a profile built not just on momentum but on historic consistency at the very top of the sport.
When the model meets the arena
The pre‑class win‑chance table had Eddy Blue, Dynastie de Beaufour, James Kann Cruz and Qonquest de Rigo as the four most likely winners, combining elite clear rates with strong Elo ratings and recent form. In the end, those predictions largely held at the level of who would feature, rather than who would win: Nina Mallevaey and Dynastie de Beaufour kept their extraordinary CSI5* 1.60m streak within touching distance of the sport’s historic record book, while James Kann Cruz once again proved almost automatic for the podium once he reached the jump‑off.
The outlier was the identity of the champion, where Ward and High Star Hero turned a small percentage into a big trophy—illustrating that in Wellington, the model can frame the conversation, but it is still the riders with deep International Arena experience who decide how the story ends.