Washington preview: champions, form and ratings collide in the President’s Cup

Mark Bluman comes to Washington with the hottest form in the field. Two weeks ago he and Landon De Nyze won the $340,000 Highlands Cup Grand Prix in Amenia, clear in both rounds. It was their second 1.60m win of the year, after the RBC Grand Prix of Canada at Spruce Meadows in June.

The ratings point somewhere else. Rodrigo Pessoa’s Major Tom is the highest rated horse entered for the week, on an Elo of 762, after finishing second in both the Barcelona Grand Prix and the League of Nations Final this month. Laura Kraut and Tres Bien Z are back to defend the President’s Cup. Jessica Mendoza, fourth here last year with In The Air, arrives as the winner in Barcelona.

Saturday night’s Longines FEI World Cup Jumping Washington is the headline, with three CSI5*-W classes before it to sort out who is sharp. The start list for the World Cup is not out yet, so this preview works from the entries for the 5* week. Several riders have two horses entered, and not every combination below will start on Saturday.

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The form book

Seven horses in the 5* entries for the week are rated 740 or higher. Three of them, Major Tom, Landon De Nyze and Tres Bien Z, have finished in the top six of a 1.60m class since the middle of September.

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Top ten 5* entries for the week by current Elo. Clear rate from each combination’s career results at 1.60m. Defending champions highlighted in red.

Two of the top three come with small samples. First Lady’s 755 sits on a single 1.60m result in our data, a clear round that finished on the podium. Gemma W has 31 classifications at the level but only one 1.60m start in the past 12 months, sixth in the Toronto World Cup last November. McLain Ward has entered both First Lady and Jordan Molga M, so Saturday’s choice is his to make.

Who leaves the fences up

Last year only eight of 31 starters went clear over the first-round course here. Clear rounds will decide this one again. Among the entries with at least ten rounds at 1.60m, two horses are clearing at roughly double the rate of the fields they have jumped against.

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5* entries with ten or more rounds at 1.60m, by clear rate.

Major Tom brings the biggest body of work, 21 clears from 57 rounds against a course average of 27%. Tres Bien Z has the second-best rate on the list, on courses that were a little kinder, with 35% of the field going clear. Two smaller samples are worth a mention: Qoachella is two from two at 1.60m, and Hector Du Ter and Savannah Jenkins have cleared two of four.

Mark Bluman & Landon De Nyze: the form horse

Mark Bluman & Landon De Nyze (ISR) have gone clear in the first round in six of their ten 1.60m classes since last year’s Washington, and two of those became wins. Amenia on 11 October was their second clear in a row, and they jumped off clean in 36.32 to win from a field of 36.

The record goes deeper than one weekend. They were second in the Wellington 5* Grand Prix in February, fourth in the $750,000 Grand Prix in Monterrey and winners of the RBC Grand Prix of Canada in June. Greenwich last month brought a clear round and sixth place. Bluman also has Phelina De Septon entered.

Rodrigo Pessoa & Major Tom: the top rated

Rodrigo Pessoa & Major Tom (BRA) have climbed from 724 to 762 since June. The run includes third in the Cashel Palace Hotel Stakes in Dublin and ninth in the Rolex Grand Prix of Ireland, then two seconds in Barcelona in three days: the Grand Prix of the City of Barcelona, clear in both rounds, and the League of Nations Final.

Major Tom has the biggest 1.60m record in the field, with 49 classifications and 57 rounds. Eleven podiums from that body of work show how often the pair are there at the finish. Pessoa has Giorgio D’Ellipse entered as well, but on these numbers Major Tom looks on Grand Prix form.

Daniel Coyle & Farrel: the clear-round machine

Daniel Coyle & Farrel (IRL) spent the summer finishing second. They were runners-up in the ATCO Queen Elizabeth II Cup and the BMO Nations’ Cup at Spruce Meadows, second in the Aga Khan Nations Cup in Dublin, and third in the RBC Grand Prix of Canada.

Farrel’s Elo went from 699 in early June to 750 by the CPKC ‘International’ in September, where the pair finished tenth. The 1.60m win has not come yet. With seven podiums from 26 rounds, and a clear rate almost double the course average, it looks a matter of time. The pair have not jumped a 1.60m class since Calgary. Coyle also has VDL Mourinho, 13th in Amenia with a single time fault.

Laura Kraut & Tres Bien Z: the defending champions

Laura Kraut & Tres Bien Z (USA) won this class last year as one of eight first-round clears, then went clear again in the jump-off in 40.83. Their autumn form is good. They jumped double clear in the League of Nations Final in Barcelona to help the United States finish fourth, and were clear in the first round of the team competition in St Tropez two weeks earlier.

Tres Bien Z’s Elo of 742 is a point higher than it was on the night of last year’s win. Kraut has Dorado 212 entered too, a three-time 1.60m winner.

Jessica Mendoza & In The Air: the Barcelona winners

Jessica Mendoza & In The Air (GBR) went clear in the first round here last year and finished fourth. Their fall has been one for the books. Sixth in Bridgehampton, fourth in the Nations’ Cup at Spruce Meadows, then a double clear to win the Grand Prix of the City of Barcelona on 2 October, ahead of Major Tom.

In The Air was rated 627 after Bridgehampton at the end of August. Two results later, the rating is 701. The pair’s clear rate of 29% at 1.60m sits right on the course average, so the recent run is the part to watch.

Beat Mändli & Qoachella: two from two

Beat Mändli & Qoachella (SUI) have jumped two 1.60m classes together and been clear in all four rounds. They won the Longines FEI World Cup in Traverse City on 20 September with a 38.03 jump-off, then finished fourth in Amenia, double clear again.

An Elo of 662 places Qoachella well down the list, but the horse gained 35 points in Amenia alone. It is a short record. It is also a perfect one.

Also in the frame

Lillie Keenan & Kick On (USA) have finished between fifth and 11th in eight of their nine 1.60m classes since last October, including sixth at the Dutch Masters and tenth at the World Cup Final. They were clear in the first round in Amenia.

McLain Ward & Jordan Molga M (USA) jumped double clear in the League of Nations Final in Barcelona to finish fourth with the team, and were sixth in the Traverse City World Cup with a single time fault.

Rene Dittmer & Cody 139 (GER) were fourth at the World Cup Final in Fort Worth, fourth in the Toronto World Cup last November, and fourth with a clear round in the Aga Khan Nations Cup in Dublin.

Skylar Wireman & Barclino B (USA) were 14th here last year. Since then they have finished second in the Toronto World Cup, third in the $750,000 Coachella Cup Grand Prix and fourth in Bridgehampton.

Nine of the 37 horses entered for the 5* week have no 1.60m results in our data, among them Rexton with Kent Farrington and Giorgio D’Ellipse with Rodrigo Pessoa. The World Cup start list will confirm which horses each rider brings out on Saturday.

The ratings say Major Tom. The form says Landon De Nyze. The clear-round numbers say Farrel. The history books say Tres Bien Z or Major Tom. Who lifts the President’s Cup on Saturday night?