The CSI5* $500,000 Modon Grand Prix at WEF Week 7 is not a class that gives anything away. Over the past decade, the average Round 1 clear rate has sat at just 16%. That means more than four out of five combinations will not make it back for the jump-off.

So who has the edge tonight?

Using EquiRatings predictive modelling, recent 1.60m form, and jump-off efficiency data, we break down where the real advantages lie.

The Statistical Leaders: Margins at the Top

The predictive model gives us three narrow favourites, and the margins are razor thin.

Eddy Blue & Darragh Kenny (14%)

Last year’s runners-up in this class return with momentum, having already won Thursday’s WEF Challenge Cup. They combine proven performance in Wellington with one of the strongest 1.60m clear rates in the field over the last 12 months. Reliable. Efficient.

Dynastie de Beaufour & Nina Mallevaey (13%)

Few combinations in the sport are operating with this level of consistency. They arrive chasing a 12th consecutive CSI5* 160 clear round, a streak that places them in rare historical company. This isn’t short-term form. It’s sustained excellence at the highest level.

James Kann Cruz & Shane Sweetnam (12%)

Podium specialists. If they qualify for the jump-off, the statistics become compelling. Their jump-off clear rate is elite, and when they go double clear, they almost always leave with silverware. The only question is whether Round 1 lets them get there.

In a class this difficult, even the favourites face long odds. But these three sit slightly ahead of the rest.

The Ones Bringing the Form

Gangster Montdesir & Richard Vogel arrive with a perfect five-star 1.60m record this season and already a Grand Prix win in Wellington two weeks ago. The sample size is still building, 4 clears from 4 rounds, but the scoreboard is flawless.

Dynastie de Beaufour and Eddy Blue both bring elite 1.60m reliability profiles, consistently outperforming the average course clear rates they face.

Charlotte Jacobs’ Playboy JT Z has quietly developed one of the strongest consistency profiles in the field, while Lillie Keenan’s Fasther remains a proven five-star winner capable of delivering under pressure.

When the first fence goes up, it won’t be about reputation. It will be about who has repeatedly left the rails untouched at this height.

If It Comes Down to the Clock

History tells us that 58% of jump-off starters in this class go on to jump double clear. But efficiency against the clock separates podium finishers from winners.

• James Kann Cruz stands out with an extraordinary jump-off profile. When he makes it back, he converts to podium, but rarely to a win.
• High Star Hero has shown impressive win efficiency once qualified.
• Gangster Montdesir combines pace with precision.
• And Dynastie de Beaufour brings both Round 1 reliability and jump-off composure

Survival is step one. Speed and accuracy under pressure decide everything after that.

The Bottom Line

With just a predicted handful of clears and no overwhelming favourite, tonight’s Grand Prix will likely be decided by the smallest of margins.

One rail.
One stride left out.
One second against the clock.

The data gives us clues. The ring will give us answers.

The Fan Guide

Find more storylines, key insights and stats and ratings on each combination in the WEF Fan Guide for tonight's CSI5* $500,000 Modon Grand Prix here.