What you need to know before Badminton Cross Country....

With dressage done and dusted, we head into cross-country Saturday at Badminton with a leaderboard stacked with talent, tight margins, and more than a few storylines brewing. The first phase gave us a glimpse — but this is Badminton, and once the start box beeps, everything can change. 

Prediction Centre Win, Podium and Top 10 Chances After Dressage

Changes in Prediction Centre Chances After Dressage

What to expect tomorrow

Cross-country day at Badminton is never easy—and Saturday’s going to be a serious test. In the last ten years, none of the winners have had a jumping penalty on cross-country, and only four have made the time.

With an 8% clear-inside-time rate and 81 starters this year, that’s only six who might do it. It’s the day that makes or breaks a Badminton result—and it’s set to be a big one for course designer Eric Winter too, who sees his 500th starter head out on one of his Badminton tracks tomorrow. Expect bold questions, tough turns, and big moves.

Metrics Explained

When it comes to cross-country analysis, a few key metrics give real insight into performance—and they help us look beyond just clear rounds or penalties. 

XCJ10 shows a horse’s clear jumping rate across its last 10 international cross-country runs, revealing consistency over time.

Avg XCJ10 provides crucial course context, showing how tough those tracks were for everyone.

Adj XCJ10 then measures how a horse’s clear rate compares to those course averages—positive means above the standard, negative means below. 

TSP (Top Speed Percentage) shows the percentage of opponents a horse has outrun on its fastest days, highlighting speed and competitiveness.

At EquiRatings, we use these metrics because the sport is more than just "yes" or "no" on the scoreboard. Every course, every round, and every competitor brings different challenges—and smart stats give fans, riders, and selectors a much deeper understanding of performance and potential.

The Most Reliable Cross Country Horses 

According to their adjusted cross country jumping (XCJ) clear rate

The Fastest Cross Country Horses

Based on the Top Speed Percentage

Galileo Nieuwmoed & David Doel

This is the only combination in the field to appear on both the fastest and most reliable cross-country lists.

XCJ10: 100%  Avg XCJ10: 57%  Adj XCJ10: +43%  TSP: 97

After finishing 6th on their Badminton debut in 2022, David Doel and Galileo Nieuwmoed return as
one of the most consistently impressive combinations in the field. They were 2nd at Burghley in
2023 and closed out 2024 with a 3rd at Maryland. This combination are certainly ones to watch going into cross country day.

Dressage is done — now it’s time for the real test. 81 starters, one tough track, and everything still up for grabs. Cross-country day at Badminton is finally here.