Colorado Blue just made Irish eventing history. At age 16, after a podium finish at Badminton, he now holds the highest Elo ever recorded by an Irish horse &mdash; 787. That result, backed by a 102 HPR, nudges him past legends like Horseware Stellor Rebound, Leonidas II, and Mr Chunky in the all-time rankings.
Now comes the big question: where does the best Irish horse in history go next?
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h3>&nbsp;</h3>
<h3>A record-breaking Badminton</h3>
Let&rsquo;s start with the numbers. At Badminton 2025, Colorado Blue opened with a 30.8 in the dressage, then delivered one of just six clear, inside-the-time rounds on cross-country day. He added just&nbsp;0.4 time penalties in the show jumping to finish on 31.2 &mdash; good enough for third place at one of the toughest five-stars in the world, and the best Irish finishing score in Badminton history.
But it wasn&rsquo;t just about the scoreboard. This result delivered a huge jump in the metrics that matter. His Elo rating climbed 32 points, from 755 to 787 &mdash; the highest ever for an Irish horse. He also posted a HPR (High Performance Rating)&nbsp;of 102, tying the best ever by an Irish combination at the top level. Only one other has hit that mark: Mr Chunky, back at Tryon in 2018.
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h3 class="" data-start="166" data-end="200">&nbsp;</h3>
<h3 class="" data-start="166" data-end="200">What is Elo? And what is HPR?</h3>
Elo is a rating system that tracks how strong a horse&rsquo;s results are over time &mdash; kind of like a world ranking, but based on performance quality, not just placings. Big results in tough fields send your Elo up faster. Smaller wins or mistakes in easier company might hold you steady or even knock you down. It&rsquo;s how we measure long-term class.
HPR&nbsp;or High Performance Rating, is different. It tells us how good that one result was. Think of it like a &ldquo;wow score&rdquo; for a single performance &mdash; the higher the number, the better the round. It looks at things like the field strength, the difficulty of the course, and how well the horse delivered across the board.
Put simply:&nbsp;Elo tells you how good the horse is.&nbsp;HPR tells you how good the day was.
&nbsp;
<hr>
&nbsp;
<h3>Who are the all-time Irish greats?</h3>
Colorado Blue might be the new number one, but he&rsquo;s in seriously good company. Ireland&rsquo;s top Elo horses have delivered some unforgettable performances &mdash; from world silver medals to big four-star wins.
<blockquote data-start="301" data-end="462">
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s a massive accolade when you look at all the great Irish horses over the last decade,&rdquo; Austin said, reflecting on the milestone.
</blockquote>
Here&rsquo;s a look at the other horses who&rsquo;ve made it into the all-time Irish top ten:
2. Horseware Stellor Rebound (Sarah Ennis, Elo 769) Horseware Stellor Rebound was a true team horse for Ireland, playing a key role in their silver medal at the World Equestrian Games with a 5th-place individual finish. His highest-rated performance came later in his career, winning Ballindenisk CCI4*-S in 2021 with a HPR of 101. This result proves just how much quality Rocket had &mdash; even at 17 years old.
3. Leonidas II (Padraig McCarthy, Elo 765) Though originally campaigned by Mark Todd, Leonidas&rsquo; Irish highlight came at Ballindenisk 2021, finishing 4th with a HPR of 95 and a typically reliable cross-country record. His Elo strength was built on consistently sub-30 dressage and nearly unbeatable jumping stats.
4. Mr Chunky (Padraig McCarthy, Elo 728) Mr Chunky's Tryon 2018 performance was his crown jewel. A 27.2 dressage, clear XC, and clean SJ for 2nd place and a 102 HPR. That&rsquo;s the same HPR Colorado Blue just earned at Badminton.
5. Cooley Rorkes Drift (Jonty Evans, Elo 718) A fan favourite, Art was quietly consistent for years &mdash; until he lit up Belton 2018 with a win. That result earned a HPR of 97, in a deep international field.
6. Rioghan Rua (Cathal Daniels, Elo 706) A model of consistency for Team Ireland, Rioghan Rua came through the junior and young rider ranks with a string of championship medals. She went on to post multiple HPRs over 100, marking her out as one of Ireland&rsquo;s most proven team performers.
7. Calmaro (Joseph Murphy, Elo 695) Calmaro&rsquo;s performance peak is more recent. His Elo reflects a steady climb, built on consistent top-10 placings at 4* level.&nbsp;He also lined up at Badminton this year, helping Joseph Murphy to his tenth Badminton completion &mdash; another milestone in an already impressive partnership.
8. Imperial Sky (Sam Watson, Elo 679) Imperial Sky was a podium regular, thanks to his clear rounds and reliably low dressage scores. In his final six international appearances, he never finished lower than second place &mdash; a run of form that speaks for itself.
9. Euro Prince (Clare Abbott, Elo 678) Euro Prince delivered a string of strong four-star results, including Belton 2016 and 2017, where he earned HPRs of 94 and 95 despite finishing 10th and 11th. The fields were so deep that even without a podium, those performances still ranked among the best on paper. A top-10 finish at Pau 5* helped cement his place &mdash; and pushed Euro&nbsp;Prince and Clare Abbott into Ireland&rsquo;s all-time top 10.
10. Halltown Harley (Georgie Goss, Elo 674) Halltown Harley's high point came at Burnham Market in 2021, where he delivered clear jumping phases and finished on 34.8 for a HPR of 92. What pushed him into Ireland&rsquo;s all-time top 10? Longevity and consistency &mdash; a horse who kept delivering at four-star level season after season.
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h3 class="" data-start="145" data-end="203">&nbsp;</h3>
<h3 class="" data-start="145" data-end="203">Where should Colorado Blue and Austin O'Connor go next?</h3>
Austin&rsquo;s not dwelling on the past.
<blockquote data-start="182" data-end="324">
&ldquo;In this game &mdash; and I suppose in all sport &mdash; you&rsquo;re only as good as your last win, so we just have to keep thinking forward,&rdquo; Austin says.
</blockquote>
 If it&rsquo;s the FEI European Championships, Austin would bring serious value to the Irish team. He&rsquo;s a proven performer under pressure, and Colorado Blue has been Ireland&rsquo;s top finisher at both Tokyo and Paris, consistently delivering when it matters most.
But individually winning Europeans takes a low-20s dressage. The last three champions all started on sub-26 scores &mdash; going as low as JL Dublin's 20.9&nbsp;at Avenches in 2021. Colorado Blue tends to trend in the low 30s, which could leave him chasing the leaders early.
For a team chasing medals? That kind of consistency is gold. For the individual win? That&rsquo;s a tougher call. 
But if it&rsquo;s Burghley, Colorado Blue might just win.
The numbers back it up. Colorado Blue&rsquo;s 102 HPR from Badminton would have been good enough to win 12 of the last 15 Burghley's. The only horses who&rsquo;ve posted higher are some of the sport&rsquo;s true legends &mdash; and all three have done the double - won both Badminton and Burghley:
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li data-start="91" data-end="152">Michael Jung &amp; La Biosthetique Sam FBW (2015) &ndash; HPR of 103</li>
<li data-start="91" data-end="152">Piggy March &amp; Vanir Kamira (2022) &ndash; HPR of 106</li>
<li data-start="91" data-end="152">Ros Canter &amp; Lordships Graffalo (2024) &ndash; HPR of 107</li>
</ul>
If Colorado Blue and Austin O'Connor head to Burghley in this form, they won&rsquo;t just be in the mix &mdash; they will be a serious contender for the win.
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h3>&nbsp;</h3>
<h3>What Would You Do?</h3>
This is a rare but exciting dilemma for Austin's team. The top-rated Irish horse of all time is still in peak form. But with age and strategy in play, the decision matters.
&nbsp;
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Austin O'Connor and Colorado Blue with Irish flag

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<h2>The Addiction of Prediction</h2>
At EquiRatings, prediction is more than a tool &mdash; it&rsquo;s an obsession. Our mission is to make equestrian sports more engaging, more insightful, and ultimately, more understandable. But prediction is often misunderstood. The real power of data isn&rsquo;t just in saying who will win; it&rsquo;s in explaining why a result happens &mdash; or why it doesn&rsquo;t.
This brings us to the most misinterpreted metric in our arsenal: Win Chance.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/e3d80c63-67a3-47c3-926a-fe7dcdb31292.jpg?width=4641&amp;height=4695" alt="Photo of the chestnut horse King Edward, ridden by Henrik von Eckermann clearing a show jumping obstacle at the Paris 2024 Olympics. King Edward get major air over the jump in an impressive fashion.">
King Edward &amp; Henrik von Eckermann (SWE) at the Paris 2024 Olympics. You can see why King Edward was widely considered a favourite, but our predictions only gave him a 7% win chance, just 1% higher than next best (see below). King Edward did not win. Checker 47 &amp; Christian Kukuk (GER) did.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/588108a9-ac84-4c4f-a169-48c3d3253010.png?width=777&amp;height=947" alt="Table showing EquiRatings' top 10 win chances for individual jumping gold ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympics">
Our pre-competition predictions for the individual Olympic jumping champion. You can see the full predictions, frozen in time, on our&nbsp;<a href="https://jumping-prediction-centre.equiratings.com/competitions/41" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jumping Prediction Centre</a> (where we publish predictions for most major classes throughout the year).
<h2 dir="ltr">Why Win Chance Isn&rsquo;t What You Think It Is</h2>
When people see our win chance percentages, they naturally focus on the favourite. That&rsquo;s human nature &mdash; we look for certainty. But here&rsquo;s the reality: in show jumping, a favourite might have a 10% chance to win&nbsp;and in eventing, that number might rise to 20% or, in rare cases, 30%. That means even the top horse is statistically more likely to lose than to win.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/b229dc4f-9625-4cae-a62d-e20997b51996.png?width=777&amp;height=910" alt="EquiRatings Prediction Centre for Badminton 2025 (pre Competition)">
Our top 10 win chances for Badminton 2025. Lordships Graffalo did indeed win. You can see the predictions for the entire field, frozen in time, on our&nbsp;<a href="https://prediction-centre.equiratings.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Eventing Prediction Centre</a>&nbsp;where we publish predictions for most major events.
That&rsquo;s what makes equestrian sport so uniquely unpredictable. Unlike football, where a dominant team often has a 50%+ chance of victory, horse sports operate in a world where the best in the world still have the odds stacked against them.
Think about that from a competitor&rsquo;s perspective. Imagine riding King Edward (jumping) or Lordships Graffalo (eventing) &mdash; clearly the best in the world &mdash; yet knowing it&rsquo;s highly probable you won&rsquo;t even medal, let alone win. That&rsquo;s pressure. That&rsquo;s the brutal reality of horse sport.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/74819af9-f0b5-4db2-97fd-25a405d7368b.jpg?width=2048&amp;height=1366" alt="The bay horse Lordships Graffalo and rider Ros Canter during the first horse inspection at Badminton 2025. Photo by Tilly Berendt.">
Lordships Graffalo &amp; Ros Canter (GBR) at Badminton 2025. Photo by Tilly Berendt.
Take Badminton 2025 for example. Lordships Graffalo &amp; Ros Canter (GBR) entered with an unusually large win chance (36%). But after dressage, they weren't leading. After cross country, they weren't leading. Ros and Lordships Graffalo weren't leading until the the very last combination in the show jumping ring - Cooley Rosalent &amp; Oliver Townend (GBR) - knocked a rail. Only for those final 25 seconds of the event were the winners winning.
Even though Lordships Graffalo &amp; Ros entered on a very high win chance and laid down a near-perfect finish-on-dressage performance, it wasn't a runaway victory for the favourites.
<h2 dir="ltr">So, Why Bother with Metrics?</h2>
Because numbers tell the story behind the sport.
<h3 dir="ltr">For fans:</h3>
For&nbsp;fans, win chances help set the stage. They introduce the underdogs, the favourites, and the history-makers before a competition begins. They help us understand when an outsider has defied the odds or when a big name has lived up to expectations.
<h3 dir="ltr">For management:</h3>
For&nbsp;management, EquiRatings provides an independent, objective voice &mdash; not replacing instinct or experience, but complementing it. We validate what people already feel, highlight names that deserve more attention, and sometimes, challenge conventional wisdom.
<h3 dir="ltr">For competitors:</h3>
For competitors, win chances aren&rsquo;t about one-off results. A single outcome can be misleading in either direction. What truly matters is moving the needle over time. Metrics give feedback on the process and that feedback fuels focus and motivation.
<h3 dir="ltr">For purchasers &amp; vendors:</h3>
For purchasers and vendors, decision-making is greatly aided by insight and context. How much is a horse worth? How many suitable horses are available? How does this horse compare to others based on what it has achieved and how much it costs? Finding horses is tough-going when you can&rsquo;t start by evaluating every horse in the world based on performance. Making decisions is tough-going when you can't list, rank and compare horses based on their performance and their price. We now have a full team dedicated to solving these problems and the traction is growing rapidly <a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/987655522/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">(see our product guide here)</a>.&nbsp;
<h2 dir="ltr">Founders Final Thought</h2>
Being first with equestrian analytics has been a journey. Creating solutions to challenges within the sport is fun, stimulating and rewarding. The ideas are often the easy bit &mdash; the real challenge, and satisfaction, is how we communicate the purpose, learn from the feedback and refine the execution so these new innovations and approaches truly take-off.&nbsp;
<h2 dir="ltr">Final Thoughts</h2>
Thanks for reading! For fresh insights, follow us at&nbsp;<a href="news.equiratings.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">news.equiratings.com</a>. To learn more about our services, visit <a href="equiratings.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">equiratings.com.</a>

Images of Ros canter with the bay horse Lordships Graffalo during a horse inspection and of a happy Henrik von Eckermann riding the chestnut King Edward after an Olympic round.

The Most Misunderstood Metric in Equestrian Sport: Why Win Chance Matters

<h1>Why Look Back?</h1>
Statistics rarely give us the whole story, but they do reveal repeatable patterns. By digging into the pre‑championship data of the last seven editions, we can identify the traits that consistently surface on the podium.
Below, we recap the headline numbers from those years and translate them into practical take‑aways for 2025.
&nbsp;
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/dc3989e8-5382-4af0-a17a-cc3330e3d1e8.png?width=1674&amp;height=2630" alt="Jcddk the Podium Finishers of the Past 7 European Championships Their Form Heading Into the Championships">
<h1> Digging Deeper: What the Numbers Tell Us</h1>
<h3>Underdogs are rare</h3>
Since 2011, just two of the 21 podium finishers have arrived with an Elo rating below 700. Both stories underline how exceptional an upset it takes to buck the rating model:
SFN Zenith &amp; Jeroen Dubbeldam (Gold, 2015) came in as the 42‑ranked pair on an Elo of 651, having logged only 2 clears from 10 pre‑European rounds at five-star 160 level. It is to be noted, however, that two of their non-clears were 1 time penalty rounds, showing they were more than capable of producing the clear over fences.
Philipp Weishaupt&rsquo;s Zineday (Silver, 2023) entered the Milan European Championships as one of the youngest horses in the field at 9 years old. While his Elo rating of 694 at the start of the Championships put him among the top-rated horses in his age category, he ranked 35th in the field in Milan. Yet his individual medal was not a complete surprise as Zineday entered the Europeans on extremely strong five-star 160 form with 5 clears from 7 rounds jumped. Throughout the Milan Championships, the pair only knocked one rail over 5 rounds of jumping.
The average Elo rating of the individual European medalists sits around the 734 mark. Ratings may not crown the champion every time, but they rarely miss completely.
<h3> When the Ratings Lined Up: Gothenburg 2017</h3>
The Elo rating was virtually clairvoyant during the 2017 edition of the FEI Jumping European Championships held in Gothenburg where there podium mirrored the ratings and Peder Fredricson &amp; H&amp;M All In left with the Individual Gold medal when they entered as the top-rated pair on an Elo of 779.
The other podium places were filled with horses who entered on top Elo ratings: silver went to Harrie Smolders &amp; Don VHP who entered as the third-rated pair in Gothenburg on an Elo of 764, while Cian O&rsquo;Connor &amp; Good Luck picked up bronze after entering as 5th rated in the field on an Elo of 761.
&nbsp;
<h3>How the Champions Managed their Campaign</h3>
Winners favour a moderate campaign. Every gold‑medallist since 2011 prepped on 6 to 11 rounds at five-star 160 level (averaging approximately 10). None came in short of work (&lt; 5) or run (&gt; 15). A balanced schedule, neither rusty nor run‑ragged, has been the sweet spot.
Clear‑round dominance doesn&rsquo;t guarantee gold. In four editions (2011, 2019, 2021, 2023) the horse with the highest pre‑event clear‑rate stood on the silver step. Champions have averaged a workman‑like 47 % clear rate at five-star 160 level in the 7-8 months leading up the the championship, proving you don&rsquo;t need a 70 %+ strike‑rate to win Europeans.

From Madrid to Milan: What Recent European Champions Tell Us About La Coruña 2025

With dressage done and dusted, we head into cross-country Saturday at Badminton with a leaderboard stacked with talent, tight margins, and more than a few storylines brewing. The first phase gave us a glimpse &mdash; but this is Badminton, and once the start box beeps, everything can change.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h3 data-start="423" data-end="780">&nbsp;</h3>
<h2>Prediction Centre Win, Podium and Top 10 Chances After Dressage</h2>
&nbsp;
<a href="https://prediction-centre.equiratings.com/competitions/badminton_5l_2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/53e89dd2-d9b5-4340-b4d9-07e551797230.bin?width=null&amp;height=null" alt="Png (1)"></a>
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h3 class="" data-start="1141" data-end="1175">&nbsp;</h3>
<h2 data-start="1141" data-end="1175">Changes in Prediction Centre Chances After Dressage</h2>
&nbsp;
<a href="https://prediction-centre.equiratings.com/competitions/badminton_5l_2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/0750c8f8-fb73-4f93-a5cc-593492d82045.png?width=810&amp;height=411" alt="Image (2)"></a>
<a href="https://prediction-centre.equiratings.com/competitions/badminton_5l_2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/ab247653-0e0b-4d1d-bc44-6702e16210c7.png?width=802&amp;height=187" alt="Image (3)"></a>
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h2 data-start="792" data-end="1080">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 data-start="792" data-end="1080">What to expect tomorrow</h2>
Cross-country day at Badminton is never easy&mdash;and Saturday&rsquo;s going to be a serious test. In the last ten years, none of the winners have had a jumping penalty on cross-country, and only four have made the time.
With an 8% clear-inside-time rate and 81 starters this year, that&rsquo;s only six who might do it. It&rsquo;s the day that makes or breaks a Badminton result&mdash;and it&rsquo;s set to be a big one for course designer Eric Winter too, who sees his 500th starter head out on one of his Badminton tracks tomorrow. Expect bold questions, tough turns, and big moves.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/327950a3-4368-4d77-96c3-31cb3b229739.png?width=565&amp;height=643" alt="Screenshot 2025 05 09 181930">
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/ac965e57-d8cf-4de5-8750-b6f8e7ff9d3e.png?width=577&amp;height=633" alt="Screenshot 2025 05 09 181909">
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h2> Metrics Explained</h2>
When it comes to cross-country analysis, a few key metrics give real insight into performance&mdash;and they help us look beyond just clear rounds or penalties.&nbsp;
XCJ10&nbsp;shows a horse&rsquo;s clear jumping rate across its last 10 international cross-country runs, revealing consistency over time.
Avg XCJ10&nbsp;provides crucial course context, showing how tough those tracks were for everyone.
Adj XCJ10 then measures how a horse&rsquo;s clear rate compares to those course averages&mdash;positive means above the standard, negative means below.&nbsp;
TSP (Top Speed Percentage)&nbsp;shows the percentage of opponents a horse has outrun on its fastest days, highlighting speed and competitiveness.
At EquiRatings, we use these metrics because the sport is more than just "yes" or "no" on the scoreboard. Every course, every round, and every competitor brings different challenges&mdash;and smart stats give fans, riders, and selectors a much deeper understanding of performance and potential.
<hr>
<h2>&nbsp;</h2>
<h2>The Most Reliable Cross Country Horses&nbsp;</h2>
According to their adjusted cross country jumping (XCJ) clear rate
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/6cc1867a-26f6-4e19-bfb0-2fd2b656822d.png?width=678&amp;height=745" alt="Screenshot 2025 05 09 194531">
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h2>&nbsp;</h2>
<h2>The Fastest Cross Country Horses</h2>
Based on the Top Speed Percentage
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/b0116d10-9a88-424b-8b16-b83f642c4b60.png?width=460&amp;height=763" alt="Screenshot 2025 05 09 194338">
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h2 data-start="90" data-end="184">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 data-start="90" data-end="184">Galileo Nieuwmoed &amp; David Doel</h2>
This is the only combination in the field to appear on both the fastest and most reliable cross-country lists.
XCJ10: 100%&emsp;&emsp;Avg XCJ10: 57%&emsp;&emsp;Adj XCJ10: +43%&emsp;&emsp;TSP: 97
After finishing 6th on their Badminton debut in 2022, David Doel and Galileo Nieuwmoed return as one of the most consistently impressive combinations in the field. They were 2nd at Burghley in 2023 and closed out 2024 with a 3rd at Maryland. This combination are certainly ones to watch going into cross country day.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/2065710d-438b-49fb-a9c3-f38c1b32a804.jpg?width=undefined&amp;height=undefined" alt="Xc David Doel Galileonieuwmoed 5"> 
&nbsp;
Dressage is done &mdash; now it&rsquo;s time for the real test. 81 starters, one tough track, and everything still up for grabs. Cross-country day at Badminton is finally here.
<section class="wysiwyg col-span-12 lg:col-span-6 lg:col-start-4">
<h2 data-start="150" data-end="200">&nbsp;</h2>
<hr>
<h2 data-start="150" data-end="200">&nbsp;</h2>
<h2 data-start="150" data-end="200">📣&nbsp;Stay in the Loop on All Things Eventing</h2>
Get the latest predictions, key stats, and storylines delivered where you want them.
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</section>

What you need to know before Badminton Cross Country....

The highest-rated Badminton field and&nbsp;the highest-rated five-star field are both records that began in 2010 and are both about to be usurped by this year's Badminton starting line-up. In fact, Badminton 2025 is set to boast a field-strength rating higher than every Olympic Games on record, and is set to become the second highest-rated competition on record behind the 2022 World Championships at Pratoni Del Vivaro.
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/a937a1f3-e3a6-4a38-88fd-38283eb0cd76.png?width=379&amp;height=411" alt="Screenshot 2025 05 07 132427">
&nbsp;
<hr>
<h2>&nbsp;</h2>
<h2>The Rating</h2>
Field strength is the average Elo rating of the Top 25 rated horses in a competition. It indicates the quality and the depth of a field of competitors. While the Elo rating measures quality and consistency&nbsp;of performance, the metric will generally favour the older horses who have had more time to build their rating. The highest Elo in the field belongs to&nbsp;Ballaghmor Class&nbsp;(890) who few will dispute is a five-star great. However, his younger adversary&nbsp;Lordships Graffalo&nbsp;(865) is lower rated on the Elo but far more highly rated on the <a href="https://prediction-centre.equiratings.com/competitions/badminton_5l_2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EquiRatings Prediction Centre.</a> This tells us that the body of work produced by Ballaghmor Class is still greater, and he shows no apparent decline, but the expected performance of Lordships Graffalo should still be superior based on his recent form and current metrics.
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<h2>&nbsp;</h2>
<h2>Other Key Competitors</h2>
JL Dublin (835) takes the third spot on Elo rating and is arguably the best horse currently in the sport&nbsp;yet to win a five-star.&nbsp;Galileo Nieuwmoed&nbsp;(793) and&nbsp;Vitali&nbsp;(783) are proven five-star specialists with excellent cross-country form. The former tends to climb after phase one, whereas the later has been the pace-setter who has slipped on the final day. If either can squeeze improvement in their weaker phase and maintain the strength of their other two, then they are also going in search of a major title.
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<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/6946b04c-b11f-4599-a958-c3059f1ad3cd.png?width=381&amp;height=631" alt="Screenshot 2025 05 07 132516">
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<hr>
<h2>&nbsp;</h2>
<h2>Eloflation</h2>
Badminton 2025 is set to record a field strength of 724. Given that the Elo was first applied to the sport of eventing in 2008 from a blanket standing start (assuming all horses were neutral performers) it does take a significant amount of time to build. La Biosthetique Sam FBW for example, made his championship debut in 2009 and some of his early career wasn't recorded by the Elo. In addition, many of the established horses that he beat in his career were not rated as highly as they should have been as they also put many of their best performances on record before 2008. Therefore, there is a small trend of Elo inflation which becomes less and less as time goes by.
The next highest five-star on the field strength rating is Badminton 2022 (711). Eloflation does not account for this difference, so Badminton is comfortably the top-rated five-star this decade.
In 2017, Badminton recorded a field strength of 703.&nbsp;And in 2013, the figure was&nbsp;694. BOTH of these competitions are certainly victims of Eloflation and it becomes a debate as to which of Badminton 2013, 2017 and 2025 is REALLY the strongest field of horses ever assembled at a five-star.
This analyst's opinion is 2013. Nicholson and Fox-Pitt were BOTH double-handed AND they were both going for a Grand Slam. Jung and Auffarth were both riding championship gold medalists. Paget took the win on a five-star great. The quality in behind these headliners was there in bulk as well.
The facts say the best on the record, but our feeling is that it's VERY close.
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Ros Canter, Tom McEwen and Oliver Townend Headshots

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