<p>Sweden has a strong tradition of success in this class, with two of the last three winners coming from the host nation. This year, the local crowd will have plenty of reasons to cheer.</p>
<h1><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/2b2a3e36-f318-4ead-ad61-22ebb734610d.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="Thursday (4)"></h1>
<h1>&nbsp;</h1>
<h1>The Hometown Heroes</h1>
<h3>Peder Fredricson &amp; Catch Me Not S</h3>
<p>A Swedish legend, Peder Fredricson enters with the highest-rated Swedish horse of the weekend, Catch Me Not S, boasting an Elo of 742. While his main focus may be Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup qualifier&mdash;where he needs a strong podium finish to secure a World Cup Final spot&mdash;he will no doubt be looking for a confidence-boosting result in front of the home fans.</p>
<h3>Henrik von Eckermann &amp; Toveks Azaria Dinero</h3>
<p>Henrik von Eckermann, the reigning World No.1, will also take center stage. Toveks Azaria Dinero is a relatively new horse for Henrik, having only taken over the ride from his student Evelina Tovek in November. However, they have already shown their competitiveness, securing two Top 8 finishes in 150 and 155 classes in La Coru&ntilde;a, as well as a strong 4th place in a 160 class in Geneva. The home crowd will be behind them as they look to continue their upward trajectory.</p>
<h3>Jens Fredricson &amp; Diarado&rsquo;s Rose Elith</h3>
<p>Another Swedish favorite, Jens Fredricson, enters with a 5% win chance, keeping him in the conversation among the top contenders. They showed solid form in Thursday&rsquo;s 150 jump-off class, incurring just 4 faults, and will be aiming to build on that performance.</p>
<h1><br>The International Challengers</h1>
<p><em>A handful of international stars will be looking to spoil the Swedish party.</em></p>
<h3>Maikel van der Vleuten &amp; Elwikke</h3>
<p>Coming in as one of the top favorites with a 9% win chance, Maikel van der Vleuten and Elwikke have already made their mark in Gothenburg. They finished third in the 145 speed class on Thursday and have proven themselves highly competitive at this level, with podium finishes in both 145 and 150 classes in Madrid last year. A serious contender for victory.</p>
<h3>Max K&uuml;hner &amp; EIC Up Too Jacco Blue</h3>
<p>Also entering with a 9% win chance, Max K&uuml;hner brings a consistent and highly competitive mount in EIC Up Too Jacco Blue. Expect them to be near the top of the leaderboard if they find their rhythm.</p>
<h3>Martin Fuchs &amp; L&amp;L Lorde</h3>
<p>The Swiss superstar Martin Fuchs brings an exciting up-and-coming horse in L&amp;L Lorde. In the past 12 months, this pair has a perfect record in 5* 150 classes, with 5 clears from 5 rounds. They also finished 7th in yesterday&rsquo;s 145 speed class, showing they are in strong form heading into Friday&rsquo;s showdown.</p>
<h1><br>Building on Yesterday&rsquo;s Success</h1>
<p><em>A handful of riders will be carrying momentum into this class after strong performances in Thursday&rsquo;s 150 jump-off.</em></p>
<p><strong>Wilma Hellstr&ouml;m and Mr Vain</strong> delivered a solid performance in Thursday&rsquo;s 150 jump-off, finishing seventh with a confident double-clear round. Though still gaining experience at this level, their form suggests they are steadily improving.&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Marco Kutscher and Catelly</strong> also impressed yesterday, securing eighth place with another double-clear effort. This result reinforces their already strong record, having now jumped clear in all three of their 150-level starts at CSI4* and CSI5* over the past year.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Meanwhile,<strong> Mario Stevens and Carrie 22</strong> continued their streak of consistency, adding yet another first-round 5* 150 clear to their name. With an outstanding 82% clear rate at this level, they head into tonight&rsquo;s class as one of the most reliable combinations in the field.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h1>Tuning Up for Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup</h1>
<p><em>Some of the biggest names in the sport will be using this class as a key preparation round ahead of Sunday&rsquo;s World Cup qualifier.</em></p>
<h3>Harrie Smolders &amp; Monaco</h3>
<p>With a 9% win chance, Harrie Smolders enters as one of the favorites, but he may take this as an opportunity to fine-tune Monaco for Sunday&rsquo;s major test.</p>
<h3>Denis Lynch &amp; Vistogrand</h3>
<p>A proven performer at 5* 150 level, Vistogrand has jumped clear in 10 of 13 rounds at this height over the past year. Denis is looking for valuable World Cup points in Gothenburg, needing a Top 9 finish on Sunday to stay in contention for a Finals spot in Basel.</p>
<h1><br>Who Will Reign in Gothenburg?</h1>
<p>With past winners of this class showcasing a mix of international stars and home favorites, history suggests a tightly contested battle. Can Sweden claim another victory in front of their home crowd, or will one of the traveling challengers steal the show? One thing is certain&mdash;Friday night will be fast, furious, and full of drama.</p>
<p><strong>Let the race for the Agria Prize begin!</strong></p>

Friday in Gothenburg: A Night of Thrills in the Agria Prize

Main

<h2 dir="ltr"><strong>The Addiction of Prediction</strong></h2>
<p dir="ltr">At EquiRatings, prediction is more than a tool &mdash; it&rsquo;s an obsession. Our mission is to make equestrian sports more engaging, more insightful, and ultimately, more understandable. But prediction is often misunderstood. The real power of data isn&rsquo;t just in saying who will win; it&rsquo;s in explaining why a result happens &mdash; or why it doesn&rsquo;t.</p>
<p dir="ltr">This brings us to the most misinterpreted metric in our arsenal: <strong>Win Chance.</strong></p>
<p dir="ltr"><strong><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/e3d80c63-67a3-47c3-926a-fe7dcdb31292.jpg?width=4641&amp;height=4695" alt="Photo of the chestnut horse King Edward, ridden by Henrik von Eckermann clearing a show jumping obstacle at the Paris 2024 Olympics. King Edward get major air over the jump in an impressive fashion."></strong></p>
<p dir="ltr"><em style="font-size: 90%; color: #737373;">King Edward &amp; Henrik von Eckermann (SWE) at the Paris 2024 Olympics. You can see why King Edward was widely considered a favorite, but our predictions only gave him a 7% win chance, just 1% higher than next best (see below). King Edward did not win.</em></p>
<p dir="ltr"><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/588108a9-ac84-4c4f-a169-48c3d3253010.png?width=777&amp;height=947" alt="Table showing EquiRatings' top 10 win chances for individual jumping gold ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympics"></p>
<p dir="ltr"><em style="font-size: 90%; color: #737373;">Our pre-competition predictions for the individual Olympic jumping champion. You can see the full predictions, frozen in time, on our&nbsp;<strong><a href="https://jumping-prediction-centre.equiratings.com/competitions/41" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prediction centre</a></strong> (where we publish predictions for most major classes throughout the year).</em></p>
<h2 dir="ltr"><strong>Why Win Chance Isn&rsquo;t What You Think It Is</strong></h2>
<p dir="ltr">When people see our win chance percentages, they naturally focus on the favorite. That&rsquo;s human nature &mdash; we look for certainty. But here&rsquo;s the reality: in show jumping, a favorite might have a <strong>10% chance to win</strong>, and in eventing, that number might rise to <strong>20%</strong>. That means <strong>even the top horse is statistically more likely to lose than to win.</strong></p>
<p dir="ltr"><strong><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/acdaa09c-93e6-4373-ac90-b37e40ec4891.png?width=816&amp;height=1344" alt="Table showing the EquiRatings pre-competition win chances (top 10) for the Burghley 2024 Horse Trials"></strong></p>
<p dir="ltr"><em style="font-size: 90%; color: #737373;">Our top 10 win chances for Burghley 2024 as published in our&nbsp;<a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/1045408090/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fan guide</a> for the event. <strong>Lordships Graffalo</strong> did indeed win.</em></p>
<p dir="ltr">That&rsquo;s what makes equestrian sport so uniquely unpredictable. Unlike football, where a dominant team often has a <strong>50%+ chance of victory</strong>, horse sports operate in a world where the <strong>best in the world still have the odds stacked against them.</strong></p>
<p dir="ltr">Think about that from a competitor&rsquo;s perspective. Imagine riding <strong>King Edward</strong> (jumping) or <strong>Lordships Graffalo</strong> (eventing) &mdash; clearly the best in the world &mdash; yet knowing it&rsquo;s <strong>highly probable you won&rsquo;t even medal, let alone win</strong>. That&rsquo;s pressure. That&rsquo;s the brutal reality of horse sport.</p>
<p dir="ltr"><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/7964b876-3a34-4427-bef0-bacbcc1d740f.png?width=816&amp;height=1344" alt="Table showing EquiRatings' top 10 win chances for the Grand Prix of Ireland at the 2024 Dublin Horse Show"></p>
<p dir="ltr"><em style="font-size: 90%; color: #737373;">Our top 10 win chances for the 2024 Rolex Grand Prix of Ireland, as published in our <a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/225256138/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fan guide</a> for the class. <strong>Callas</strong> did </em><em><span style="font-size: 90%; color: rgb(153, 153, 153);">not end up </span></em><em style="font-size: 90%; color: #737373;">winning but <strong>Martin Fuchs</strong> &amp;<strong> Conner Jei</strong> did.</em></p>
<h2 dir="ltr"><strong>So, Why Bother with Metrics?</strong></h2>
<p dir="ltr">Because numbers tell the <strong>story behind the sport.</strong></p>
<h3 dir="ltr">For fans:</h3>
<p dir="ltr">For&nbsp;<strong>fans</strong>, win chances help set the stage. They introduce the <strong>underdogs, the favorites, and the history-makers</strong> before a competition begins. They help us understand when an outsider has defied the odds or when a big name has lived up to expectations.</p>
<h3 dir="ltr">For management:</h3>
<p dir="ltr">For&nbsp;<strong>management</strong>, EquiRatings provides <strong>an independent, objective voice </strong>&mdash; not replacing instinct or experience, but complementing it. We validate what people already feel, highlight names that deserve more attention, and sometimes, challenge conventional wisdom.</p>
<h3 dir="ltr">For competitors:</h3>
<p dir="ltr">For <strong>competitors</strong>, win chances aren&rsquo;t about one-off results. A single outcome can be misleading in either direction. What truly matters is <strong>moving the needle over time</strong>. Metrics give feedback on the process and that feedback fuels focus and motivation.</p>
<h3 dir="ltr">For purchasers &amp; vendors:</h3>
<p dir="ltr">For <strong>purchasers and vendors</strong>, decision-making is greatly aided by insight and context. How much is a horse worth? How many suitable horses are available? How does this horse compare to others based on what it has achieved and how much it costs? Finding horses is tough-going when you can&rsquo;t start by evaluating every horse in the world based on performance. Making decisions is tough-going when you can't list, rank and compare horses based on their performance and their price. We now have a full team dedicated to solving these problems and the traction is growing rapidly <strong><a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/987655522/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">(see our product guide here)</a>.&nbsp;</strong></p>
<h2 dir="ltr">Founders Final Thought</h2>
<p dir="ltr">Being first with equestrian analytics has been a journey. Creating solutions to challenges within the sport is fun, stimulating and rewarding. The ideas are often the easy bit &mdash; the real challenge, and satisfaction, is how we communicate the purpose, learn from the feedback and refine the execution so these new innovations and approaches truly take-off.&nbsp;</p>
<h2 dir="ltr">Final Thoughts</h2>
<p dir="ltr">Thanks for reading! For fresh insights, follow us at&nbsp;<a href="news.equiratings.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">news.equiratings.com</a>. To learn more about our services, visit <a href="equiratings.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">equiratings.com.</a></p>

Images of Ros canter with the bay horse Lordships Graffalo during a horse inspection and of a happy Henrik von Eckermann riding the chestnut King Edward after an Olympic round.

The Most Misunderstood Metric in Equestrian Sport: Why Win Chance Matters

<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/18666657-c7ba-4ec8-9e53-e3362962b94d.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="Friday (2)"></p>
<p>The Dutch riders are the ones to beat in tonight&rsquo;s CSI5* 1.50m Prize of Mips, with Maikel van der Vleuten &amp; Elwikke and Harrie Smolders &amp; Monaco entering as joint favorites with a 9% win chance. Van der Vleuten is already in form after a podium finish in Thursday&rsquo;s 145 speed class, while Smolders and Monaco bring experience and a 49% clear rate at this level.</p>
<p>But Sweden is ready to fight back in front of the home crowd! Peder Fredricson &amp; Catch Me Not S (7% win chance) and Henrik von Eckermann &amp; Toveks Azaria Dinero (6%) lead the Swedish charge, while Jens Fredricson &amp; Diarado&rsquo;s Rose Elith will also be looking to deliver. Two of the last three winners of this class have been Swedish&mdash;can they do it again?</p>
<p>Dutch dominance or Swedish success? Game on in Gothenburg!&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>

Friday in Gothenburg: Dutch Favourites in Tonight's Prize of Mips

<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/4f81093d-0f99-402a-b5ce-979478eb20b7.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="4"></p>
<p>Last year, Petronella Andersson and Odina Van Klapscheut claimed victory by the narrowest of margins, winning by just 0.09 seconds. In 2020, Douglas Lindel&ouml;w and Casquo Blue put Sweden on top once again. Both wins showcased the ability of Swedish riders to handle the pressure and deliver under the Scandinavium lights.</p>
<p>Tonight, the likes of Peder Fredricson, Henrik von Eckermann, and Jens Fredricson will lead the charge for Sweden, but they face stiff competition from international stars like Maikel van der Vleuten, Max K&uuml;hner, and Martin Fuchs, all entering with strong form.</p>
<p>Will the blue and yellow fly high once again, or will an international challenger break Sweden&rsquo;s winning run? One thing is for sure&mdash;speed and precision will be key in this thrilling contest.</p>

Friday in Gothenburg - Can the Swedish Success Continue?

<p>Click here to start exploring your fan guide!&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong style="font-size: 90%;"><a href="https://digital.equiratings.com/view/446460920/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://digital.equiratings.com/view/446460920/</a></strong></p>
<h2>What you'll see in the guide:</h2>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Who wins? </strong>Predictions for tonight's big class</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Big names &amp; top-ranked riders </strong>at the Gothenburg Horse Show this year</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Medal-winning horses </strong>who first honed their skills at GHS</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>What's the <strong>competition format</strong> (rule summary)?</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>The <strong>last 10 winners </strong>of this class</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>The<strong> statistics for every single competitor </strong>(in their starting order)</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr>
<p>There'll be a new guide every day so <strong><a href="https://news.equiratings.com/categories/gothenburg-horse-show" target="_blank" rel="noopener">check back here</a></strong> to see them all:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><em>Thursday:</em> Prize of AJ Produkter</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><em>Friday:</em> Prize of Mips (1.50 m speed class) | TODAY!</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><em>Saturday:</em> Gothenburg Trophy presented by Volvo Cars</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li><em>Sunday:</em> LONGINES FEI JUMPING World Cup&trade;&nbsp;presented by Guldfynd</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Enjoy your evening and follow us on<strong> <a href="https://www.instagram.com/equiratings_showjumping/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Instagram</a> </strong>and <strong><a href="https://www.whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaByaVo3QxS7qLas323H" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WhatsApp</a></strong> for all the latest on the Gothenburg Horse Show.</em></p>

Front-on, close-up image of Angelica Augustsson Zanotelli, riding a bay horse who wears a ribbon on his bridle. Angelica is smiling.

Friday in Gothenburg: A Night of Thrills in the Agria Prize

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Friday in Gothenburg: Dutch Favourites in Tonight's Prize of Mips

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Fan guide for Friday evening's Prize of Mips

Friday in Gothenburg: A Night of Thrills in the Agria Prize

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