Team USA delivered a composed, consistent and ultimately dominant performance to capture the 2025 Mercedes-Benz Nations Cup in Aachen, adding their name to the trophy for the eighth time &mdash; and for the second time in just four years after their 2021 success.
Coming into the class with a 29% win probability, USA were already favourites &mdash; but it was how they sustained, defended, and then decisively capitalised on their lead that set them apart. From Lillie Keenan&rsquo;s double clear to Germany&rsquo;s critical stumbles, the class was rich in drama, shifting probabilities, and performances under pressure.
<h1>Key Moments That Shaped the Nations Cup</h1>
&nbsp;
<h3>Lillie Keenan&rsquo;s Double Clear Sets the Tone</h3>
 Lillie Keenan &amp; Argan de Beliard&rsquo;s textbook first round, clear and confident, helped the USA to a perfect start and preserved flexibility in Round 2. When she repeated the feat in Round 2, her second clear preserved USA&rsquo;s discard and helped bump the team&rsquo;s win chance to 76%, a moment that could be described as the moment they won it.
&rarr; Impact: USA&rsquo;s win probability jumped from 46% after Round 1 to 76% after Lillie Keenan&rsquo;s round in Round 2, a critical rise driven by consistency.
&nbsp;
<h3>Germany&rsquo;s Double Triple Combination Struggle</h3>
The host nation Germany were serious contenders throughout, peaking at a 26% win chance after Round 1. But when Christian Kukuk&rsquo;s Cepano Baloubet refused at the combination, the home crowd groaned and the algorithm reacted. Germany&rsquo;s win chance plummeted from 27% to just 11% in a single moment.
Hans-Dieter Dreher &amp; Elysium then attempted to bring the host nation back into the game with a superb clear round to bring their chances back up to 33%. Unfortunately, Sophie Hinners&rsquo; Iron Dames Combella took a significant hit in the combination, adding 11 penalties and reducing Germany&rsquo;s win probability to 0%. Emotionally and statistically, this was the knockout punch.
&rarr; Impact: This was a defining moment that took Germany out of the win equation, handing strategic control to the USA. The second major blow to Germany extinguished their podium ambitions, paving the way for Belgium and Great Britain.
&nbsp;
<h3>Abdel Said Delivers for Belgium</h3>
Despite coming into Round 2 on a 78% podium chance, Jos Verlooy &amp; Parise van den Dael&rsquo;s 8-penalty round dropped Belgium&rsquo;s podium chance down to 35%. Under intense pressure and with podium positions on the line, Abdel Said &amp; Bonne Amie produced a clutch clear in Round 2, keeping Belgium in contention and raising their chances for silver. His recovery after a Round 1 struggle was a key turning point.
&rarr; Impact: Belgium&rsquo;s path to the podium stabilised after Abdel Said &amp; Bonne Amie&rsquo;s clear round, boosting their podium chances to 70%. They eventually finished second behind the USA.
<h3> Confirming GB Podium in Aachen Debut</h3>
In a class filled with veteran names and Olympic champions, Georgia Tame and the 9-year-old BE Golden Lynx delivered a pair of quietly brilliant rounds that proved crucial to Great Britain&rsquo;s podium finish. Making her Aachen debut, she recorded just one time fault in each round of a tough Nations Cup, showing poise well beyond their experience. Their clear jumping round in Round 2 was not only technically sound but also pivotal in the prediction mode.&nbsp;
&rarr; Impact: Georgia Tame &amp; BE Golden Lynx&rsquo;s consistency helped boost Great Britain&rsquo;s podium probability from 27% to 82% in a single effort and was instrumental in securing the bronze medal. Amongst all the drama, her cool execution stood out as a model of rising talent on a big stage.
&nbsp;
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/26538897-d6fa-4bfc-bafb-71ef68e596fb.png?width=1240&amp;height=1008" alt="G Q Wf O How the Podium Chances Changed for the Mercedes Benz Nations Cup 2025">
<h1> Aachen Royalty</h1>
While many riders struggled to master the course at Aachen, two horses stood out not just for their performance in this class, but for their ongoing records of excellence at this iconic venue.
Vertigo du Desert, ridden by Luciana Diniz, extended his impeccable Aachen record to 6 clear rounds from 6 at 160 level, spanning appearances in 2019, 2021, and now 2025. He once again delivered a double clear under the lights, proving he&rsquo;s one of Aachen&rsquo;s most reliable performers.
Dallas Vegas Batilly, under Ben Maher, continued her own remarkable Aachen streak. After a podium finish in Wednesday&rsquo;s Turkish Airlines-Prize of Europe, her double clear in this Nations Cup brought her record to 9 clears from 11 rounds at 160 at this venue, a strike rate of 82% that few can rival, and another reason Team GB finished on the podium.
In a sport where consistency is gold, Vertigo du Desert and Dallas Vegas Batilly are proving themselves Aachen legends.
&nbsp;
<h1>A Masterclass in Momentum</h1>
What makes USA&rsquo;s win particularly special is that their win chance never dropped below 29% across the competition and they never relinquished the lead in the prediction model. While other teams rode emotional highs and suffered heartbreaking lows, the Americans kept their rhythm, with standout performances from Lillie Keenan and McLain Ward underlining their depth.
This Nations Cup had it all: refusal drama, heroics under pressure, emotional crowd moments. Team USA emerged from it all, cool-headed and clear, to once again raise the trophy in Aachen.

Predictably Brilliant: How Team USA Triumphed in Aachen

Eventing

Defender Kentucky

MARS Badminton Horse Trials

Jumping

FEI World Cup Final 

US Equestrian Open Jumping Final

Latest Shows

Previews & insights

Latest Articles

Follow our coverage

US Equestrian Open

Win Chances

Latest Insights

Close up Image of the Bay Horse Beauville Z N.o.p. & His Rider Maikel Van Der Vleuten Clearing a Show Jumping Fence in Competition. an Upward Trending Arrow Is Behind the Subjects. Photo Tilly Berendt. Design EquiRatings.

Current Top Horses

Close up Image of Rider Henrik Von Eckermann Rubbing the Neck of His Chestnut Horse King Edward With Both Hands as They Exit the Show Jumping Ring After a Round. Photo Tilly Berendt. Design EquiRatings.

All-Time Top Horses

Image of the Bay Horse Lordships Graffalo and Ros Canter During a Horse Inspection. an Upward Trending Arrow Is Behind the Subjects. Photo Tilly Berendt. Design EquiRatings.

Image of the the Bay Horse La Biosthetique Sam Fbw and Michael Jung During a Horse Inspection. Two Line Graph Icons Are Behind the Subjects. Photo Tilly Berendt. Design EquiRatings.

Horse Ratings

Main

Caroline Harris and D.Day jumping with scrabs in the backgroung

Your Aachen Questions Answered

Few venues command respect quite like CHIO Aachen. Known as the Wimbledon of equestrian sport, it blends sporting heritage with world-class atmosphere. Riders dream of winning here. Fans pack the grandstands for five-star action. And with the Mercedes Benz Nations Cup and Rolex Major Grand Prix on the schedule, it&rsquo;s where reputations are made, or broken.
<h1>The Stars of the Show</h1>
Which horses have shown class across their career?
The Elo rating reflects sustained success against the world&rsquo;s toughest competition and this year&rsquo;s Aachen field is packed with the world&rsquo;s best. All of the Top 10 rated horses ready to rock in Aachen rank among the Top 25 rated horses in the entire world.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/4107437a-1a87-4257-8558-0baf8ced11f4.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="1">
<h3>Last stop before the Jumping Europeans</h3>
Several contenders are using the Aachen stage as a critical build-up to the 2025 European Championships in La Coru&ntilde;a.&nbsp;
Based on the EquiRatings Prediction Center, Ben Maher and Point Break will enter the Europeans as the favourites for individual gold. As their last stop before the Championships, they come to Aachen as the top-rated pair in the field with Point Break&rsquo;s Elo up at 791. Despite their swift rise up the ratings with consistency at the highest level of the sport, primarily in 2024, Ben and Point Break have not yet claimed a major Grand Prix win. With Sunday&rsquo;s Rolex Grand Slam Grand Prix on the line and Ben Maher&rsquo;s hunger to finally take top honours in a Rolex Major, they could be the ones to beat on Sunday.&nbsp;
Richard Vogel &amp; United Touch S&rsquo;s near-miss in the Rolex Grand Prix of Aachen last year is engraved in many a showjumping fan's memory. As their last stop before spearheading a strong German team in La Coruna, they will want to set the record straight and become the fifth consecutive German victors of the prestigious Aachen Grand Prix.&nbsp;
Their presence at Aachen signals an important stepping stone, a last major test against the best in the world before championship pressure sets in. How they handle the spotlight here may offer valuable insight into their medal credentials for mid-July.
&nbsp;
<h1>Form Front-Runners: Who&rsquo;s Outperforming Expectations?</h1>
Who&rsquo;s delivering clear rounds at a level beyond expectation?
Some horses aren&rsquo;t just jumping clear, they&rsquo;re doing it when the odds say they shouldn&rsquo;t. These combinations are currently delivering above-standard performances, turning heads with consistency that outpaces the difficulty of the courses they&rsquo;re facing.
&nbsp;
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/82a7df8d-fac5-442e-b2f4-018915c92624.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="2">
&nbsp;
<h3>What is the Clears Against Standard Metric?</h3>
One combination has taken 2025 by storm. Denis Lynch and Vistogrand have already had a busy season with 18 five-star 160 rounds jumped so far and exactly half of them resulting in a clear.&nbsp;
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/bb65ca3e-84c8-4ffa-82d0-f064cfd1cc0c.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="What Is Cas Blog Banner">
&nbsp;
<h3>The Double Threats: Consistency Meets Momentum</h3>
In a field stacked with stars, three horses hit both the Top 10 on rating and on form. These combinations are arriving in Aachen with the perfect balance, proven over time and peaking when it matters.
Bonne Amie &amp; Abdel Sa&iuml;d are having a season that&rsquo;s hard to ignore. Bonne Amie&rsquo;s place among the highest-rated horses speaks to years of elite-level performances, but what&rsquo;s especially exciting is her current form. With a five-star Grand Prix victory to start off the season in Doha, they have continued to churn out strong results with a double clear in the Nations Cup of La Baule to help Team Belgium to a podium finish and most recently picking up a 155 victory under the Eiffel Tower in Paris for their last outing before this weekend. That&rsquo;s a dangerous profile heading into a venue as demanding as Aachen.
Greya, the leader of Kent Farrington&rsquo;s string, offers a different kind of threat. She is the only horse who has already managed to win not one, not two, but three five-star Grands Prix in 2025. Without a European Championships to distract them, their focus can solely lie on repeating Kent&rsquo;s 2019 performance of winning the Rolex Grand Slam Grand Prix of Aachen.
Another Team USA star to consider in Aachen is Imperial HBF. The talented gelding only made his five-star debut under McLain Ward 6 weeks ago, but the pair have managed to maintain an exceptional consistency on this season&rsquo;s toughest courses with clear rates averaging at just 19%. They produced double clears in the Nations Cup of Rome and the Grand Prix of La Baule, a kind of adaptability and effectiveness that shows a major advantage in a team context.
All three horses bring something slightly different to the table, but they&rsquo;ve delivered when it counted, and they&rsquo;re entering Aachen in the kind of shape that could turn strong reputations into major victories.
&nbsp;

Stars of the Show: Who’s Set to Shine at CHIO Aachen 2025?

Ros Canter and Lordships Graffalo with GB flag

Selecting Team GB: What Our HPR Hot List Can Tell Us Ahead of the Europeans

Germany was the team to beat. Now, following the withdrawal of their horse on form, the European Championship leaderboard looks very different. The question on everyone&rsquo;s mind: is this the moment Belgium take control?
&nbsp;
<h2>Messi Out, and Germany Feels It</h2>
Just days after retiring during the Longines League of Nations in Rotterdam, Janne Friederike Meyer-Zimmermann confirmed that Messi van&rsquo;t Ruytershof will not be heading to La Coru&ntilde;a. In a heartfelt post, she wrote: &ldquo;Messi is not right and needs a break&hellip; we&rsquo;ll give him all the time he needs.&rdquo;
From a performance perspective, the impact is immediate. Messi had the strongest recent form of any of Germany&rsquo;s nominated combinations with 13 clears at five-star 160 level from 18 rounds (71% clear rate) in the last 12 months. With the loss of Messi, Germany&rsquo;s win chance drops from 23% to 14%, and their podium chance from 53% to 41%. They still bring class in United Touch S (775) and potentially Iron Dames My Prins (760) but without Messi, the team loses its statistical spearhead.
&nbsp;
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/122699ea-73e5-475a-a672-956d801e681e.png?width=2160&amp;height=1350" alt="How the Team Win Chances Changes After Germany&rsquo;s Loss of Messi Van&rsquo;t Ruytershof">
&nbsp;
<h2>Belgium Take the Lead</h2>
Belgium had already been lurking near the top of the projections. With all their key contenders in play, they now step forward as outright favourites. Their win probability rises to 20%, and their podium likelihood reaches 47%.
This isn&rsquo;t just about Messi&rsquo;s absence, it&rsquo;s about Belgium&rsquo;s consistency and strength in depth. Across their top four combinations, Belgium brings a blend of experienced championship performers and horses trending upward in form.
Belgium was the first nation to announce their definite team for the Jumping European Championships in La Coruna.
&nbsp;
<img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/9c9c5355-48b7-4cdc-b671-b4161686a170.png?width=1412&amp;height=860" alt="Hn M Zk the Belgian Team for the 2025 Jumping European Championships in La Coruna">
&nbsp;
<h2>Ireland on the Rise Too</h2>
The domino effect of Messi&rsquo;s withdrawal doesn&rsquo;t stop with Belgium. Ireland quietly becomes one of the biggest movers, climbing to an 18% win chance, now just two percentage points behind Belgium.
With potential rising stars like ESI Rocky &amp; Qonquest de Rigo who will likely be joined by seasoned competitors such as Darragh Kenny, Cian O&rsquo;Connor and/or Denis Lynch, Ireland&rsquo;s nominated squad holds both depth and promise. Their collective upward trend has them primed to capitalise if any other favourites falter.
&nbsp;
Messi&rsquo;s early exit from the European Championship story changes everything. The individual favourite is out and the team landscape is suddenly more open than ever. As team selections approach and La Coru&ntilde;a draws closer, the numbers are shifting, and so is the pressure.
&nbsp;

La Coruña 2025: Is Germany’s Loss Belgium’s Gain?

Predictably Brilliant: How Team USA Triumphed in Aachen

Top Stories

Predictably Brilliant: How Team USA Triumphed in Aachen

Your Aachen Questions Answered

Stars of the Show: Who’s Set to Shine at CHIO Aachen 2025?

Selecting Team GB: What Our HPR Hot List Can Tell Us Ahead of the Europeans

La Coruña 2025: Is Germany’s Loss Belgium’s Gain?

Latest Shows

Defender Kentucky

Eventing

MARS Badminton Horse Trials

Eventing

FEI World Cup Final

Jumping

US Equestrian Open Jumping Final

Jumping

Latest Insights

Latest Articles

Previews & insights

US Equestrian Open

Follow our coverage

Win Chances

Jumping

Win Chances

Eventing

Horse Ratings

Current Top Horses

Jumping

All‑Time Top Horses

Jumping

Current Top Horses

Eventing

All‑Time Top Horses

Eventing