Main

<p>Unlock the power of data-driven equestrian insights! Subscribe to EquiRatings' newsletter for the latest news in Eventing and Show Jumping, delivered straight to your inbox. Get exclusive access to expert analysis, performance metrics, and captivating stories that keep you ahead of the curve.</p>

newsletter

Stay Ahead with EquiRatings Insights

<p>At EquiRatings, we have recorded every FEI World Cup since 2010. That is 13 editions of the prestigious event, and this year&rsquo;s Basel 2025 Final makes it number 14.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Over all of those finals, 120 combinations have qualified for the Day 2 jump-off. On Friday 4th April, 2025, Julien Epaillard became the first and only competitor in that sample of 120 competitors to decline participation in the Day 2 jump-off.</p>
<h1><br>The Sacrifice &nbsp;</h1>
<p>No one knows how <strong>Donatello D&rsquo;Auge</strong> and <strong>Epaillard </strong>would have performed. The pair have previously contested 15 jump-offs at 5* 160 level, producing 8 clears (53%), 7 podiums (47%) and 5 wins (33%).</p>
<p>The winner of the jump-off on Day 2 of the Basel Finals was Martin Fuchs with Leone Jei. Donatello and Leone both jumped clear in round one of the 2024 IJRC Finals in Geneva and the 2023 Rolex Grand Slam leg in s&rsquo;Hertogenbosch. Leone won the former and Donatello finished 2nd in the latter, where Leone Jei finished 5th.&nbsp;</p>
<p>By his own admission, Fuchs&rsquo; jump-off round wasn&rsquo;t perfect. It&rsquo;s fair to say, without diving into too much science at this point, that Epaillard surrendered about a 50% chance of finishing 1st or 2nd (his likelihood of jumping clear) in the jump-off. The positions are basically an even split.&nbsp;</p>
<p>In the 25% scenario where he wins, he gives himself a 5 penalty cushion over Henrik Von Eckermann and a 6 penalty cushion over Martin Fuchs, Kevin Staut, Lillie Keenan and Ben Maher.&nbsp;</p>
<p>In the other 25% scenario where he finishes second, he gives himself a 4 penalty cushion over Martin and Henrik, and a 5 penalty cushion over Kevin, Lillie and Ben. The crucial 4 penalty cushion would at least open the door to only the 3rd jump-off since 2010 should he add one more rail than Martin and Henrik and they tie for first place. &nbsp;</p>
<p>As it is, with his decision to sit out the jump-off, he has only 2 penalties in hand over Martin and Henrik, and he has only 3 penalties in hand over Kevin, Lillie and Ben. <strong>In short, he has no fence in hand over five of the best combinations in the sport right now, where he could have had a fence in hand over all of them.</strong></p>
<p>But his decision would have only partly been based on competitive advantage over his rivals. The other part, like a Formula One driver managing his tyres, was based on the engine underneath him. Potentially, by saving the legs of Donatello on Friday, he left more in the tank for Sunday, and that might be worth as much as 4 or even 8 penalties.</p>
<h1><br>The Stats</h1>
<p>EquiRatings was founded by a championship equestrian with the vision of solving performance problems just like this. Students of the sport and enquiring minds so often have great questions and instincts which are left starved without data analytics to answer them. Hence the birth of EquiRatings. For our Olympic teams, we avoid stats which can flatter (or deceive) and we focus on creating metrics that actually matter.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Epaillard decision is exactly the scenario where we can combine historic data with EquiRatings metrics and insights to help guide decision-making. So here goes&hellip;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>298 combinations have jumped all three competitions at a World Cup Final since 2010. 82 of those combinations contested the jump-off on Day 2 of the finals.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Those 82 horses had a 35% clear rate in round one of the final competition and a 28% clear rate in round two of the final. Just 13% produced a double clear across both rounds.</p>
<p>So now let&rsquo;s look at the 216 horses that didn&rsquo;t contest the Day 2 jump-off but did go on to contest the final competition. Remember that all 298 of these horses also jump the opening day competition. Also keep in mind that I&rsquo;m about to give you stats rather than science. But the face-value data is still of interest.&nbsp;</p>
<p>The 216 horses that didn&rsquo;t jump-off on Day 2 produced a 29% clear rate in round one of the final competition and a 23% clear rate in round two of the final. Just 9% produced a double clear across both rounds.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Some of you are thinking, &lsquo;wow, the horses that jumped-off and put extra miles in actually performed better on the final day&rsquo; and some of you are thinking &lsquo;hold on, surely the horses who made the jump-off are better horses anyway and so were always more likely to perform better on the final day&rsquo;.&nbsp;</p>
<p>So this is exactly why the top Olympic managers and so many people buying performance horses now use EquiRatings. Stats will almost always paint a picture that is fraught with danger. It&rsquo;s why most smart equestrian decision-makers have actually avoided data in equestrian sports until EquiRatings came along.&nbsp;</p>
<h1><br>The Science</h1>
<p>So here&rsquo;s how to really answer the question. Donatello D&rsquo;Auge is currently rated 766 on the EquiRatings Elo. Horses with this rating jump clear at a rate of 49.9% at 5* 160 level. So we want to only analyse horses of a similar ability to Donatello.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Since 2010, at the World Cup Finals, 41 of the 298 horses that jumped all three competitions were rated 750 or higher on the EquiRatings Elo. Across the 41 horses, they averaged 6.3 penalties across the two rounds on the final day of the competition. But here&rsquo;s the thing&hellip;</p>
<p>18 of the horses rated 750+ didn&rsquo;t make the jump-off on Day 2 and they averaged 5.3 penalties across the final competition. 23 of the horses rated 750+ did contest the jump-off on Day 2 and they averaged 7.0 penalties across the final competition.&nbsp;</p>
<p>So yes, as we all intuitively thought, Julien Epaillard did two things on April 4th. He sacrificed a genuine chance (~50%) of giving himself a fence in hand on the final day of the World Cup finals, but he also gave his horse a performance advantage (~1.7 penalties) and a higher likelihood of producing fewer penalties.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h1>What this means for Sunday</h1>
<p>There are two key takeaways for me. Firstly, I think he gave the sport one of the most interesting talking points and fan engaging moments that I can recall. We should all be absolutely glued to FEI TV on Sunday to see if the flying Frenchman&rsquo;s restraint pays-off. Secondly, if you really want to manage the chance of success then you have to be able to measure the chance of success. Every sport and every business measures what they want to manage and improve. Equestrian sport is not predictable, it is fraught with chance, but that chance can be measured by those with a deep enough domain knowledge and an aptitude for real analytics.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Most will judge Julien&rsquo;s decision based on Sunday&rsquo;s outcome. At EquiRatings, we believe in process over outcomes. We believe that informed decision-making will not only motivate performers and fuel progress, but it can also give insights to decision-makers that can yield marginal gains and make medal-winning differences. &nbsp; &nbsp;</p>
<p>So what do I think? Well, if you followed the maths above then I think you know. But for our usual honest, tangential and sometimes heated discussions on such matters, you&rsquo;ll catch the full reaction on the EquiRatings Jumping Podcast.&nbsp;</p>

The Science Behind Epaillard’s Strategy

<h2><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/302a1f5d-e1ba-479b-8e36-89df8c0316d1.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="2"></h2>
<h2>Fuchs Brings Fairytale Win to Surge up the Standings</h2>
<p>With two days of action behind us and one final to go, Martin Fuchs has stormed into serious contention to win the FEI World Cup&trade; Final 2025 on home soil. His win in Final II has not only pushed him up the leaderboard, but also skyrocketed his win chance to 33%, making him the new statistical favourite according to EquiRatings&rsquo; predictive model.</p>
<h2>Tactical Julien Plays it Smart</h2>
<p>Despite sitting at the top of the overall standings, France&rsquo;s <strong>Julien Epaillard</strong> opted out of the jump-off in Final II. It&rsquo;s a strategic move&mdash;keeping his horse fresh for the final&mdash;but it also shifted momentum. Julien&rsquo;s 23% win chance keeps him in second place on the model, and he&rsquo;ll need a two big rounds on Sunday to hold off the charge.</p>
<h2>The Title Race: Still in the Mix</h2>
<p>Behind the leading two, <strong>Henrik von Eckermann</strong> and <strong>Ben Maher </strong>remain within striking distance. Neither made it through to Friday's jump-off, but after a superb Day 1 performance are stil within striking distance of the podium, or even the win.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Henrik sits at a 2 penalty difference from the leader, less than a rail from the leader. With a 14% win chance, the defending champion sees the third consecutive victory within reach.</p>
<p>The pre-competition favourite, Ben Maher, currently sits at 3 penalties from the leader, less than one rail removed. His horse, Point Break, entered the competition on the strongest form of any other horse in the field. If they can find momentum again, they will be a dangerous pair in Sunday's Final.</p>
<h2>Within a Rail from the Leader</h2>
<p>Three additional riders are still within a rail from Julien Epaillard's leading position.&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Kevin Staut </strong>and <strong>Lillie Keenan </strong>remain in podium contention, both currently standing on 3 penalties. This is Kevin Staut's 13th time competing at World Cup Finals, yet the win has alluded him to date. Will this be his 13th time lucky?</p>
<p>A slower clear on Day 1, but a superb third place finish on Day 2 has made <strong>Alessandra Volpi </strong>one of the talking riders of this championship. Currently within 4 penalties from the leader, two more solid rounds on Sunday can see her become the revelation of this World Cup Finals.&nbsp;</p>
<h2>One Round to Crown a Champion</h2>
<p>Julien leads. Fuchs is flying. The chasing pack is close. And predictive analytics say it&rsquo;s far from over. Who will hold their nerve and rise on Sunday?</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/a2942adb-999c-4ee6-9d33-d44ea861d7d2.png?width=979&amp;height=663" alt="Image (2)"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Stay tuned for updated predictions and full coverage on the final day.</p>

World Cup Finals Basel 2025: Can Fuchs Make the Swiss Dream Come True?

<h1>Day 1 Matters&hellip; A Lot</h1>
<p>The trend is hard to ignore: every World Cup champion since 2017 has led after the first round. In fact, you&rsquo;d have to go back to 2010 to find a winner who wasn&rsquo;t in the top 6 after Day 1. That&rsquo;s the kind of stat that makes you think: this thing is already decided.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/a9016584-b763-400b-a43c-fc86eca8ec6f.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="2"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h1>But Hold On&mdash;Here Comes the Data!</h1>
<p>Despite the leaderboard, our predictive analytics platform gives Ben Maher and Point Break a 28% win chance&mdash;more than double Julien&rsquo;s. And it&rsquo;s not just about vibes. It&rsquo;s about form.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/9fedd3b0-c3bd-4466-93fb-2f03d201d684.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="Julien"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Point Break</strong> has delivered 12 clears in his last 15 rounds, with only three rails since November 2024. That&rsquo;s world-class consistency at the top level.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/d08009d6-0d63-4d2e-bc1d-6fa5d9648e2d.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="Ben Form"></p>
<p><br><strong>Donatello D&rsquo;Auge</strong>, Julien&rsquo;s mount, has had just 3 clear rounds in 11 starts over the same period. That&rsquo;s a big gap.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/c0c12974-90e3-44f6-b0a4-0fe44df54f19.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="Donatello Form"></p>
<h1>Clean. Consistent. Clutch.</h1>
<p>Ben Maher sits just behind Julien after Day 1, and our numbers say he's the one to beat heading into the final rounds. Form matters. And while trends point one way, the data tells another story.</p>
<p>Who are you backing to be crowned World Cup Champion by Sunday?</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>

World Cup Finals 2025: The Trends Say Julien, but the Data Says Ben

<p>You can&rsquo;t beat a championship feeling when you want to zone into your sport and get completely absorbed by top level action for a weekend. The World Cup Finals present that opportunity and, if like past me, you love and admire the game, but you constantly find yourself a step behind the current horses in the sport, then here&rsquo;s your one-stop round-up of who the greats are right now and who is likely to become the next World Cup champ.</p>
<h1>The Finals Trend</h1>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/495e9822-4e2b-4f07-8eb2-0564bc6af733.png?width=1632&amp;height=1208" alt="J J N7 E Day 1 Position of the World Cup Finals Champions Since 2010"></p>
<p>Stats and trends can be indicators, but they can also mislead. When it comes to the last six World Cup champions, they ALL won the opening class of the finals.&nbsp;</p>
<p>When six consecutive winners all have something in common, it creates a hugely misleading feeling of certainty. Yes, the first day really matters. You will hear &lsquo;there&rsquo;s still a long way to go&rsquo;, but it&rsquo;s a huge advantage to be leading after day one.</p>
<p>But here&rsquo;s the difference with EquiRatings. We hear phrases like &lsquo;could win&rsquo;, &lsquo;huge chance&rsquo; and &lsquo;big advantage&rsquo; all the time. But can we actually quantify these phrases? If we don&rsquo;t, then we fall into the trap of either over-emphasising or under-valuing.&nbsp;</p>
<p>So before and after each day of the World Cup Finals this year, check out the EquiRatings Prediction Centre for quantified win and podium chances. I suspect the day one leader will still be more likely to lose than win the overall final (less than 50% win chance).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h1>The Main Contenders</h1>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/b3dfd65f-7ad8-46e3-a0b5-c833197c5283.png?width=1372&amp;height=1814" alt="Bp3a Q Fei Jumping World Cup Finals Basel 2025 the 10 to Watch (1)"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Beauville Z: The Bronze Legend Ready for Gold</h3>
<p>With the reigning back-to-back winning horse, King Edward, on duty stateside for the World Number One, the favourite is going to be the second highest rated horse in the world - Beauville Z. This Dutch legend is a history maker, with three individual medals at Tokyo, Herning and Paris Olympic and World Championships. His three bronze medals show his quality and consistency, but this is an opportunity to take a major title.&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Point Break: The Sport's Next Superstar?</h3>
<p>The horse producing sensational form over the past six months is Ben Maher&rsquo;s Point Break. His 12 clears from 14 rounds in the last 6 months is what history tells us is an unsustainable clear rate of 86%. His career clear rate at 5* 160 is 63% - 5% higher than Beauville&rsquo;s (58%) - which is a jaw dropping number in this game. This horse is making a bid to become the number one horse in the sport over the coming seasons, and a win here would boost that effort significantly. &nbsp;</p>
<h3>United Touch S: Unbeaten against the Clock</h3>
<p>United Touch S has a career clear rate of 45%, but his form (55%) and expected clear rate (52%) suggest he is a better horse now than he was earlier in his career at this level. His super power is speed in jump-offs - whenever he has jumped clear against the clock he has never been beaten. 11 jump-offs at the highest level, 6 clears and 6 wins. Outrageous. He&rsquo;s a great contender to lead on day one, but he is slightly more vulnerable to a rail than his leading rivals.</p>
<h3>Leone Jei vs. Elektric Blue Ps: The Rivalry We Need</h3>
<p>There is very little between Leone Jei (Martin Fuchs) and Elektric Blue P (Max Kuhner). The latter has jumped 105 rounds at 5* 160 level (insane!) with 57 clears - a rate of 54%. The same career clear rate for Leone is 53%. There is almost nothing between them on ratings and when you look at their top level head-to-head history, the pair have clashed 29 times at the highest level. Leone has come out on top 15 times, 13 for Elektric Blue P and there is one draw (a nations cup where they both jumped double clear). Sport needs rivalries - this one has depth and it&rsquo;s a close call.</p>
<h3>Iliana: Defending the Title, but a Big Ask Ahead</h3>
<p>On ratings, the reigning champion is up against it with Iliana - but they won their home Grand Prix in Gothenburg in February and they have big performances in the locker. Consistency over the three days will be their challenge.&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Donatello d'Auge: Fast, Fearless &amp; Dangerous on Day One</h3>
<p>Another key contender for a day one victory is the speedster Donatello D&rsquo;Auge for Julien Epaillard. His form and career clear rate at the top level both come in at 45% - to win this they probably need a minimum of 4 clears from 5 rounds (80%).</p>
<h3>Bond Jamesbond de Hay: Quietly Building a Serious Case</h3>
<p>Gregory Wathelet&rsquo;s Bond Jamesbond De Hay boasts impressive form (86%) and an impressive career rate at 57% - 25 clears from 47 rounds.&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Iron Dames My Prins: The Underdog to Watch</h3>
<p>Sophie Hinners is a name that everyone should know by now, but she&rsquo;s arguably the underdog of these top riders in terms of history and reputation. The stats and ratings for Iron Dames My Prins give robust evidence to her being a genuine contender here.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The World Cup Finals never fail to deliver drama, brilliance, and a touch of unpredictability&mdash;and this year&rsquo;s line-up is stacked with storylines. From legendary medal-winners to rising stars, tactical competitors to underdog contenders, the stage is set for a spectacle of the sport&rsquo;s elite.</p>
<p>If you want to stay one step ahead throughout the competition, make sure you&rsquo;re following the data. The EquiRatings Prediction Centre will update the win and podium chances each day&mdash;quantifying the hype, the form, and the shifting odds of becoming the next World Cup champion.</p>

FEI World Cup Finals 2025: The Numbers Behind the Sport

<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/fd84bb36-33a4-4024-acbe-7ac10184cc19.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="2"><br><br>The last 6 World Cup Champions were leaders after the First Competition on Day 1 of the Finals. While Day 1 leaders will often hear &lsquo;there&rsquo;s still a long way to go&rsquo;, it can be a huge advantage to be leading after day one.<br>Yet, it can also create a false feeling of certainty...</p>
<p>All eyes on tomorrow&rsquo;s First Final Competition &amp; whether this streak will continue.</p>

The Day One Leader to World Cup Champion Pipeline

How is World Cup Finals Scored? Your Cheat Sheet to the Format

<p>Since its inaugural edition in 1979, the FEI Jumping World Cup Final has been one of the most iconic and sought-after indoor titles in show jumping. With elite riders, unforgettable rivalries, and legendary horses, it has written some of the sport's most memorable chapters. As we head into the 2025 FEI World Cup Finals in Basel, it's the perfect moment to look back at the riders and nations who have shaped its legacy.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/956967d6-a125-467c-969b-36865756aa52.png?width=1548&amp;height=2868" alt="Qec Gu All the World Cup Finals Champions Since 1979"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h1>The Legends Club: Riders with Three Titles</h1>
<p><em>Only five riders in the event's 45-year history have managed to claim the trophy three times.</em></p>
<h3>Rodrigo Pessoa (BRA)</h3>
<p>Rodrigo Pessoa is widely regarded as one of the World Cup Finals&rsquo; greatest icons. He remains the only rider to have ever claimed three consecutive titles, a feat he achieved with the legendary chestnut stallion, Baloubet du Rouet. He is one of just two horses who have ever won three World Cup Finals in their career.</p>
<p>The pair came dangerously close to claiming a fourth consecutive victory in the 2001 Gothenburg Finals, falling just short in a thrilling two-combination jump-off against Markus Fuchs and Tinka&rsquo;s Boy in Gothenburg.</p>
<h3><br>Marcus Ehning (GER)</h3>
<p>Marcus Ehning has etched his name in World Cup history with three titles won aboard four different horses over seven years. He first triumphed in 2003 on Anka 191 in Las Vegas, followed by a 2006 win in Kuala Lumpur with Sandro Boy. In 2010, he returned to the top of the podium with the help of Plot Blue and Noltes Kuechengirl.</p>
<p>Remarkably, Marcus is the only three-time champion competing in the 2025 Final&mdash;and the only rider with the chance to become a four-time winner.</p>
<h3><br>Steve Guerdat (SUI)</h3>
<p>Steve Guerdat is the most recent addition to the three-title club, and just like Marcus Ehning showcased his consistency with three different horses. His first victory dates back to exactly a decade ago when he rode Albf&uuml;hren&rsquo;s Paille to the win in Las Vegas. The following year, he rode Corbinian to World Cup Final victory in Gothenburg to score back-to-back wins. For his third win, Guerdat counted on Alamo to take the win in the birthplace of World Cup Finals in Gothenburg.</p>
<p>Though he qualified for the 2025 Final in Basel, Guerdat will miss the event due to a recent surgery that has sidelined him for several months.</p>
<h3><br>Hugo Simon (AUT)</h3>
<p>The first rider to ever win three World Cup Final titles was Austrian rider Hugo Simon. He was the winner of the inaugural World Cup finals in Gothenburg in 1979 riding Gladstone. Then followed a 17-year wait for his next win of this championship. Aboard E.T. FRH, he took back-to-back victories in the 1996 Geneva Finals and the 1997 Gothenburg Finals.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Meredith Michaels-Beerbaum (GER)</h3>
<p>Meredith Michaels-Beerbaum is the only female rider to ever win three World Cup Finals. For all three victories, she counted on her trusty partner, Shutterfly. They won the Finals in Las Vegas in 2005 and 2009, but also claimed a win in 2008 in Gothenburg.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h1>Defending Champion Returns</h1>
<p>Henrik von Eckermann captured the world when he captured back-to-back titles in 2023 and 2024 in the saddle of the world&rsquo;s top-rated horse, King Edward.</p>
<p>In 2025, Henrik returns to chase a third consecutive title&mdash;but this time without his iconic partner. His chosen mount for Basel is Iliana. Can she rise to the occasion and help Henrik equal Rodrigo Pessoa&rsquo;s historic three-peat from a quarter-century ago?</p>
<h1><br>Nation vs Nation: USA leads the charge</h1>
<p>In the 44 editions of the Final to date, the United States has emerged victorious 11 times&mdash;claiming a full quarter of the titles. Germany trails just behind with 10 wins, keeping the transatlantic rivalry alive and well.</p>
<h1><br>Looking Ahead to Basel 2025</h1>
<p>As anticipation builds for Basel 2025, follow our channels for exclusive updates, storylines, and data insights on the combinations vying for their place in World Cup history.</p>

FEI World Cup Final