At EquiRatings, we have recorded every FEI World Cup since 2010. That is 13 editions of the prestigious event, and this year’s Basel 2025 Final makes it number 14. 

Over all of those finals, 120 combinations have qualified for the Day 2 jump-off. On Friday 4th April, 2025, Julien Epaillard became the first and only competitor in that sample of 120 competitors to decline participation in the Day 2 jump-off.

The Sacrifice  

No one knows how Donatello D’Auge and Epaillard would have performed. The pair have previously contested 15 jump-offs at 5* 160 level, producing 8 clears (53%), 7 podiums (47%) and 5 wins (33%).

The winner of the jump-off on Day 2 of the Basel Finals was Martin Fuchs with Leone Jei. Donatello and Leone both jumped clear in round one of the 2024 IJRC Finals in Geneva and the 2023 Rolex Grand Slam leg in s’Hertogenbosch. Leone won the former and Donatello finished 2nd in the latter, where Leone Jei finished 5th. 

By his own admission, Fuchs’ jump-off round wasn’t perfect. It’s fair to say, without diving into too much science at this point, that Epaillard surrendered about a 50% chance of finishing 1st or 2nd (his likelihood of jumping clear) in the jump-off. The positions are basically an even split. 

In the 25% scenario where he wins, he gives himself a 5 penalty cushion over Henrik Von Eckermann and a 6 penalty cushion over Martin Fuchs, Kevin Staut, Lillie Keenan and Ben Maher. 

In the other 25% scenario where he finishes second, he gives himself a 4 penalty cushion over Martin and Henrik, and a 5 penalty cushion over Kevin, Lillie and Ben. The crucial 4 penalty cushion would at least open the door to only the 3rd jump-off since 2010 should he add one more rail than Martin and Henrik and they tie for first place.  

As it is, with his decision to sit out the jump-off, he has only 2 penalties in hand over Martin and Henrik, and he has only 3 penalties in hand over Kevin, Lillie and Ben. In short, he has no fence in hand over five of the best combinations in the sport right now, where he could have had a fence in hand over all of them.

But his decision would have only partly been based on competitive advantage over his rivals. The other part, like a Formula One driver managing his tyres, was based on the engine underneath him. Potentially, by saving the legs of Donatello on Friday, he left more in the tank for Sunday, and that might be worth as much as 4 or even 8 penalties.

The Stats

EquiRatings was founded by a championship equestrian with the vision of solving performance problems just like this. Students of the sport and enquiring minds so often have great questions and instincts which are left starved without data analytics to answer them. Hence the birth of EquiRatings. For our Olympic teams, we avoid stats which can flatter (or deceive) and we focus on creating metrics that actually matter.

The Epaillard decision is exactly the scenario where we can combine historic data with EquiRatings metrics and insights to help guide decision-making. So here goes…

298 combinations have jumped all three competitions at a World Cup Final since 2010. 82 of those combinations contested the jump-off on Day 2 of the finals. 

Those 82 horses had a 35% clear rate in round one of the final competition and a 28% clear rate in round two of the final. Just 13% produced a double clear across both rounds.

So now let’s look at the 216 horses that didn’t contest the Day 2 jump-off but did go on to contest the final competition. Remember that all 298 of these horses also jump the opening day competition. Also keep in mind that I’m about to give you stats rather than science. But the face-value data is still of interest. 

The 216 horses that didn’t jump-off on Day 2 produced a 29% clear rate in round one of the final competition and a 23% clear rate in round two of the final. Just 9% produced a double clear across both rounds. 

Some of you are thinking, ‘wow, the horses that jumped-off and put extra miles in actually performed better on the final day’ and some of you are thinking ‘hold on, surely the horses who made the jump-off are better horses anyway and so were always more likely to perform better on the final day’. 

So this is exactly why the top Olympic managers and so many people buying performance horses now use EquiRatings. Stats will almost always paint a picture that is fraught with danger. It’s why most smart equestrian decision-makers have actually avoided data in equestrian sports until EquiRatings came along. 

The Science

So here’s how to really answer the question. Donatello D’Auge is currently rated 766 on the EquiRatings Elo. Horses with this rating jump clear at a rate of 49.9% at 5* 160 level. So we want to only analyse horses of a similar ability to Donatello. 

Since 2010, at the World Cup Finals, 41 of the 298 horses that jumped all three competitions were rated 750 or higher on the EquiRatings Elo. Across the 41 horses, they averaged 6.3 penalties across the two rounds on the final day of the competition. But here’s the thing…

18 of the horses rated 750+ didn’t make the jump-off on Day 2 and they averaged 5.3 penalties across the final competition. 23 of the horses rated 750+ did contest the jump-off on Day 2 and they averaged 7.0 penalties across the final competition. 

So yes, as we all intuitively thought, Julien Epaillard did two things on April 4th. He sacrificed a genuine chance (~50%) of giving himself a fence in hand on the final day of the World Cup finals, but he also gave his horse a performance advantage (~1.7 penalties) and a higher likelihood of producing fewer penalties. 

What this means for Sunday

There are two key takeaways for me. Firstly, I think he gave the sport one of the most interesting talking points and fan engaging moments that I can recall. We should all be absolutely glued to FEI TV on Sunday to see if the flying Frenchman’s restraint pays-off. Secondly, if you really want to manage the chance of success then you have to be able to measure the chance of success. Every sport and every business measures what they want to manage and improve. Equestrian sport is not predictable, it is fraught with chance, but that chance can be measured by those with a deep enough domain knowledge and an aptitude for real analytics. 

Most will judge Julien’s decision based on Sunday’s outcome. At EquiRatings, we believe in process over outcomes. We believe that informed decision-making will not only motivate performers and fuel progress, but it can also give insights to decision-makers that can yield marginal gains and make medal-winning differences.    

So what do I think? Well, if you followed the maths above then I think you know. But for our usual honest, tangential and sometimes heated discussions on such matters, you’ll catch the full reaction on the EquiRatings Jumping Podcast.