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<p>Ireland comes into today&rsquo;s Nations Cup as the standout team, holding the top spot in the predictions with a commanding 34% win chance. But in a sport where anything can happen, and usually does, being the favourite only adds to the pressure. Here's why all eyes are on Ireland, and why victory is far from guaranteed.</p>
<p>Nations Cup showjumping has many faces. Sometimes it&rsquo;s a two-horse race, like Ireland versus Switzerland in 2023, where the shape of the contest is clear, the rivalry sharp, and the fans know exactly where the threat is coming from. That clarity can make defeat possible in people&rsquo;s minds, because the opponent is obvious and strong.</p>
<p>Other times, the competition is wide open. Three or four nations all bunched at the top of the win chances, co-favourites pushing each other, and fans walking in with managed expectations, knowing it&rsquo;s going to be a dogfight.</p>
<p>Today is neither of those days. Today, Ireland stands alone. Clearly the strongest team, a 34% favourite, far out in front of their rivals. And yet, the EquiRatings model reminds us: that still means a 64% chance they don&rsquo;t win. Their opponents aren&rsquo;t a single powerhouse nation. They are seven different teams, each with a small chance, but together holding the statistical edge. The threat is collective, not singular.</p>
<p>That creates a special kind of pressure. With no headline rival to point at, no single team the fans can fear in advance, if Ireland don&rsquo;t bring this one home it will feel like a huge loss because on paper, this is theirs to win. And that&rsquo;s the paradox of elite sport: you can be the best, and still the odds say you probably won&rsquo;t win.</p>
<p>That&rsquo;s why Nations Cup showjumping is an absolute cauldron. When you know you&rsquo;re the best but the numbers are still against you, that is the definition of pressure. That is top-level equestrian sport.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/1d3296d5-27c2-4456-b5c6-afa20291eb85.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="Dhs 25   Social Graphics (2)"></p>

The Definition of Pressure: Ireland, Clear Favourite, But Still Must Overcome the Odds

<p>It&rsquo;s time. The iconic Aga Khan Trophy is on the line this Friday at the Dublin Horse Show, and the host nation couldn&rsquo;t be better placed to claim it. With a 34% win chance and a team stacked with talent, Ireland arrives as clear favourites, but the story of the Nations&rsquo; Cup is rarely so simple. Across two tough rounds, and maybe even a jump-off, history, heartbreak, and heroics will unfold in front of a roaring home crowd.</p>
<p>This is no exhibition match. From seasoned veterans to breakout stars, from local favourites to fierce rivals, the battle for the Aga Khan begins at 3pm on Friday. Here's what you need to know.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/cb297c60-a7e5-46d8-b6eb-aa294778e91d.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="Dhs 25   Social Graphics (2)"></p>
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<h2>Ireland: Home Pressure and High Expectations</h2>
<p>On paper, Ireland is the team to beat. Their win chance (34%) and podium probability (68%) are the best in the field and that without naming their top-rated combination, Darragh Kenny &amp; Eddy Blue, on the squad. That&rsquo;s how strong this team is. Denis Lynch opens with the seasoned Vistogrand, followed by rising stars Tom Wachman with Tabasco de Toxandria Z and Seamus Hughes Kennedy with ESI Rocky, the top-rated horse at the in this class with a staggering 70% clear rate at 5* 160 level and a freshly acquired 5th place finish at the European Championships last month. Then, there&rsquo;s the anchor: Cian O&rsquo;Connor, Ireland&rsquo;s most decorated Nations Cup rider of the last decade.</p>
<p>The RDS roars for green jackets, but expectations can be heavy. Ireland has led the predictions before only to fall short. The question is whether this quartet can handle the pressure and finally bring home the 25th Aga Khan Trophy, &nbsp;inching closer to Great Britain&rsquo;s all-time record of 27 wins.</p>
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<h2><br>USA &amp; Germany: Not at Full Force, But Not Out of It</h2>
<p>The United States returns as defending champions but field a team focused more on development than dominance. McLain Ward &amp; Callas bring elite form and experience as anchors, but the remaining three, including a nine-year-old and a pair of under-tested horses, have combined for just two clears at 5* 160 level all year. Still, Ward thrives under pressure, and the Americans love this arena. They won last year with only a 10% win chance, they&rsquo;re on 14% this time.</p>
<p>Germany also sits on a 14% win chance, but the team lacks its usual firepower. Christian Ahlmann and Marco Kutscher bring experience, while newly crowned European Champion, Richard Vogel adds winning form to Sandra Auffahrt&rsquo;s quality, though not all riders come in on proven partnerships. There&rsquo;s potential here, particularly from Vogel, but this team isn&rsquo;t setting the crowd alight on paper. And yet, Germany rarely fields a team that doesn't know how to win.</p>
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<h2>Challengers to Watch: GB, Mexico, and the Rest</h2>
<p>Team GB is flying slightly under the radar at 10%, but don&rsquo;t write them off. Donald Whitaker &amp; Millfield Colette were superb at the Europeans, and Adrian Whiteway with Chacco Volo has shown great promise in top classes. With a team silver medal already in their pocket this summer, GB could be primed for a big breakthrough.</p>
<p>Mexico&rsquo;s squad enters at 9% with flair and a hope of replicating their 2018 victory. Their surprise win in 2018 remains one of the most electric moments in modern Aga Khan history, and riders like Federico Fernandez and Eugenio Garza P&eacute;rez are capable of delivering again. Also lurking are the Netherlands, Canada, and Switzerland, each with podium pedigree and enough firepower to take advantage if the favourites falter. No team is a longshot, even the Swiss, with just a 5% win chance, bring Martin Fuchs &amp; Conner Jei to the party who produced a double clear in this class last year.</p>
<p>One thing&rsquo;s certain: This isn&rsquo;t just another Nations&rsquo; Cup. This is Dublin. This is history. And Ireland might finally be ready to write their name on the Aga Khan Trophy for the 25th time. But standing in their way is a field of nations that knows exactly what it takes to spoil the party.</p>
<p>Buckle in. The jumping starts at 3pm.</p>
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<h2>Follow Along and Get More Insight</h2>
<p>Want more stats, stories, and standout names before the action kicks off? Visit the EquiRatings Fan Guide from the Dublin Horse Show website, where you&rsquo;ll find insights, predictions, stories &amp; the start list.</p>
<p><a href="https://equiratings.info/dublinfanguide2025friday" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://equiratings.info/dublinfanguide2025friday</a></p>
<p>And if you prefer to listen, catch up on the Nations Cup Preview episode of the EquiRatings Jumping Podcast, where Sam Watson, Charlotte Smet, and Ali Barrett break down each team, every stat, and what it really takes to win the Aga Khan Trophy at home.</p>
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<p><iframe style="border: none;" title="Embed Player" src="https://play.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/37724255/height/192/theme/modern/size/large/thumbnail/yes/custom-color/3f3f3d/time-start/00:00:00/playlist-height/200/direction/backward/download/yes/font-color/FFFFFF" width="100%" height="192" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p>
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Ireland’s Golden Chance: 25th Aga Khan Trophy within Reach in Nations Cup

<h2>A Home Crowd, a Historic Stage</h2>
<p>There is nothing in show jumping quite like the Dublin Horse Show. The 150th edition will be packed, not just with fans but with expectation. The Aga Khan Nations Cup on Friday and the Rolex Grand Prix on Sunday remain the centrepieces of a week that brings the sport&rsquo;s elite to the RDS, and in 2025, the standard is as high as it has ever been.</p>
<p>The Swiss were the first ever winners of the Nations Cup in Dublin (in 1926). Great Britain holds the record with 27 titles. But the pressure now is on the Irish who were runners-up in the last two years. Could this finally be the year to take it back?</p>
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<h2>A Star-Studded Line-up</h2>
<p>Darragh Kenny&rsquo;s<strong> Eddy Blue</strong> is the top-rated Irish horse in the world and enters the 2025 Dublin Horse Show as the joint top-rated pair in the field. With nine clears from 12 rounds at five-star 160 level this season, they&rsquo;ve been remarkably consistent and finished in the Top 10 in last month&rsquo;s Jumping European Championships. A podium on Sunday would finally bring his campaign into full focus.</p>
<p>The USA dominated the 2024 Aga Khan Nations Cup. McLain Ward delivered a key double clear to bring home the trophy and returns this year with a great string of horses. <strong>Imperial HBF</strong> is relatively new in his stables, but the pair have already raked up a great record of results together including a podium finish in the Rolex Grand Prix of La Baule and helping Team USA to two Nations Cup victories.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/a4320f61-284f-404f-a17e-9c1ea3db9b58.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="The Stars of the Show for the 2025 Dublin Horse Show"></p>
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<h2>The Form Horses: Who&rsquo;s Coming In Hot?</h2>
<p><strong>Seamus Hughes Kennedy and ESI Rocky</strong> return to Dublin as contenders, not debutants. Two years ago, they jumped their first five-star here. Now they are among the top-rated pairs at the show with one of the highest clear rates (70%) at five-star 160 this year, and a fifth-place finish at the 2023 Europeans on their record. Still only 23, Seamus could deliver a career-defining performance on home soil.</p>
<p><strong>Jordan Coyle&rsquo;s Chaccolino</strong> comes into Dublin with one of the strongest 5* Grand Prix records in recent weeks: three consecutive podiums, including third place at Hickstead and two top-three finishes in Spruce Meadows. Seven clears from 10 rounds at five-star 160 this year, and still going under the radar. His other ride, <strong>For Gold,</strong> has won five 150 classes at Spruce in the last six weeks alone. Both horses are entered.</p>
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<h2>The Defending Champions: USA Mean Business</h2>
<p>The USA team were strong in 2024. They look even stronger in 2025. Laura Kraut, McLain Ward, Aaron Vale and Lucy Davis are joined by rising star Alex Matz. All five have delivered top-level performances this season, and three were part of last year&rsquo;s winning team in Dublin.</p>
<p>Laura Kraut&rsquo;s <strong>Bisquetta </strong>has shown great consistency this year with a narrow second place finish in the US Equestrian Open Grand Prix of Wellington and was a part of the winning Nations Cup teams in Rome and Aachen. McLain Ward, with Imperial HBF, has five clears from eight starts at 160 in 2025, including Nations Cup wins in Rome and Aachen. Together they&rsquo;ve formed a rapid-fire partnership that looks ready to deliver again.</p>
<p>Aaron Vale&rsquo;s<strong> Carissimo 25</strong> was part of that same Nations Cup-winning team in Dublin last year and now adds a Grand Prix win in Dinard to his growing list of achievements. Add Lucy Davis, 2016 Olympic Team Silver medalist, and Alex Matz, who had a breakthrough show in Toronto late last year, and this is a team with real momentum.</p>
<p>Three Nations Cup wins already in 2025. A title to defend. The US arrive in Dublin with purpose.</p>
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<p>For a full in-depth preview on the 2025 Dublin Horse Show, listen to the Dublin Diaries on the EquiRatings Jumping Podcast.<br><br></p>
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<p><iframe style="border: none;" title="Embed Player" src="https://play.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/37654235/height/192/theme/modern/size/large/thumbnail/yes/custom-color/192d52/time-start/00:00:00/playlist-height/200/direction/backward/download/yes/font-color/FFFFFF" width="100%" height="192" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p>
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150 Years of the Dublin Horse Show: The Superstars, the Stats & the Stakes

<h2>Back Where It All Clicked</h2>
<p>Last year, Dublin was a defining stop on the calendar for Vale and Carissimo. Not only did they help Team USA clinch the prestigious Aga Khan Nations Cup, they also landed a podium finish in the Rolex Grand Prix, firmly establishing themselves as contenders on the European five-star circuit. Now, they return with even more firepower and a major new title under their belts.</p>
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<h2>Dinard Breakthrough Ignites the Season</h2>
<p>Just weeks ago, Vale and Carissimo delivered a sensational performance in the Rolex Grand Prix of Dinard. Last to jump in the decisive round, they produced the only sub-39-second time of the jump-off, stopping the clock at 38.77 to claim their first ever CSI5* Grand Prix victory as a partnership.</p>
<p>That win was the culmination of persistence and form: it marked their 33rd round together at the five-star 1.60m level and their fourth international win overall. Statistically and emotionally, it was a milestone and one that rocketed Carissimo 25 into the Top 15 US-based horses by Elo rating, now sitting at 718.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/2ec05072-29f3-4f6b-b12d-39a8403c3ddf.png?width=1006&amp;height=696" alt="J4n Rj Aaron Vale Carissimo 25 S International Victories"></p>
<h2>Dublin Awaits: Can Lightning Strike Twice?</h2>
<p>Their return to the RDS is more than a homecoming, it&rsquo;s a title defense. After playing a key role in the U.S. victory in last year&rsquo;s Nations Cup and finishing third in the Grand Prix, Vale and Carissimo are uniquely equipped for success in Dublin&rsquo;s atmospheric main arena.</p>
<p>With form peaking at the right time, this pair could be the ones to watch in both the Nations Cup and Sunday&rsquo;s Rolex Grand Prix. Few partnerships combine experience, precision, and current momentum quite like they do and they&rsquo;ve already shown they can thrive under Dublin&rsquo;s spotlight.</p>
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<h2>The Verdict</h2>
<p>In a sport where timing is everything, Vale and Carissimo are hitting their stride just as Dublin comes into view. Whether they can repeat, or even surpass, the magic of last summer remains to be seen. But one thing&rsquo;s clear: they&rsquo;re not just returning to a familiar stage. They&rsquo;re coming back as serious threats.</p>
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RDS Dublin Horse Show

The Definition of Pressure: Ireland, Clear Favourite, But Still Must Overcome the Odds

Ireland’s Golden Chance: 25th Aga Khan Trophy within Reach in Nations Cup

150 Years of the Dublin Horse Show: The Superstars, the Stats & the Stakes

All Eyes on Dublin: Vale and Carissimo Return in Top Form

Stay Ahead with EquiRatings Insights