Is this Vitali's Kentucky?
Just hear us out... the data says that the conditions at Kentucky this weekend suit Tim Price and Vitali better than any five-star they’ve tackled before.
Tim Price & Vitali arrive at the Kentucky five-star this week as something of an outlier in the conversation about who wins. The EquiRatings Predicton Centre gives the Kiwi a 5% pre-competition win chance, behind major contenders like Tom McEwen, Boyd Martin, and Will Coleman. But the underlying data says there is a genuine case that the conditions this weekend suit this combination more than any five-star they have contested before.
The dressage case
Vitali's 6RA of 26.5 makes him the second-lowest dressage average in the field, only 0.1 behind Monica Spencer & Artist. But averages only tell part of the story. At his best, this horse has gone to places very few horses reach.
His 18.7 at Burghley in 2023 is the record dressage score at that venue since 2008 and it sits just 0.1 off the Kentucky record of 18.6, set by Michael Jung & fischerChipmunk FRH last year. No other combination in this field has shown the ability to produce a score in that territory. It is extremely possible that Vitali could lead the dressage.
Tim Price & Vitali after scoring a 25.6 at the Tokyo Olympics
The cross-country case
In nine five-star starts (including Olympics) together, Tim Price & Vitali have never once incurred a cross-country jumping penalty. The only XC jumping penalty on Vitali's entire record came in his very first international: a CCI2*-S at Rockingham in 2017 with James Avery. Since then, he has been faultless across country at every level.
They will add time penalties — they always do — but rarely many. Their average time penalties at five-star are 4.5, excluding the exceptionally wet Badminton 2023 which would otherwise distort the true picture. If they carry a dressage lead into the cross-country and add only a handful of time penalties, they could still be in front going into the final phase.
This will be their tenth five-star start together. A cross-country jumping clear on Saturday would take Vitali to ten career five-star XCJ clears - a figure only six horses have surpassed since 2008, among them Armada, Nereo, and Ballaghmor Class. It is a rare kind of consistency.
The show jumping question
The show jumping is where this combination's podium bids have historically unravelled. It is a known vulnerability and there is no point pretending otherwise.
But Kentucky makes things easier. Over the past five years, it has been the most forgiving show jumping track of any five-star on the circuit. It has an SJS figure of just +0.1, meaning riders perform almost exactly to expectation in the final phase. Compare that to Badminton (+3.1), where competitors consistently underperform relative to their ability. The Kentucky course simply costs riders less in the final phase.
Vitali has contested the majority of his five-stars at Badminton and Burghley, both on grass. Kentucky's show jumping is held on an arena surface - creating another marginal factor that could work in his favour.
Tim Price working out if the show jumping gods are finally on his side
The broader picture
Tim Price has six five-star wins since 2008. The next closest rider in this field is Boyd Martin with two. He is one of the most decorated five-star riders of his generation, and he arrives at a venue that statistically suits Vitali's strengths more than anywhere they have competed together before. It would take a dream weekend... but the conditions for one have never been better.
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