James Kann Cruz finished the 2022 season as the highest-rated nine-year-old horse of that year. He has carried that over to the following age category and to this day remains the highest-rated ten-year-old horse in the world with a margin of 16 Elo points. Yet, he is still 33 Elo points short of the record-breaking ten-year-old season produced by Ben Maher's Explosion W in 2019.

Matching the greats

H&M All In & Hermes Ryan

Although we are only 8 months into the year, the Irish-bred gelding has already achieved the fourth-highest Elo achieved by a ten-year-old horse in the sport since 2010, matching two-time Olympic medalist H&M All In and multiple 5* Grand Prix winner Hermes Ryan.

By August of 2016, H&M All In had already reached the peak of his ten-year-old year and didn't improve on his Elo of 771. 

Hermes Ryan's Elo, however, followed a different trajectory in 2015. By the August of that year, the chestnut firecracker 'only' had an Elo of 758. Hermes Ryan didn't reach the 771 Elo until the end of December, meaning he grew his Elo by 13 points in the space of under four months.

If James Kann Cruz were to follow in Hermes Ryan's footsteps and grow his Elo by 13 points before the end of the year, the grey would finish his ten-year-old season on an Elo of 784, surpassing Big Star as the second highest-rated 10-year-old of all time. Yet, he would still be 20 Elo points short of Explosion W's record. 

This huge margin begs the question: How did Explosion W build such a huge rating at 10 years old?

How he did it

Head start

Just like James Kann Cruz, Explosion W finished his nine-year-old year as the highest-rated horse of that age. Finishing 2018 on an Elo of 773 at nine years of age broke the record for highest-rated nine-year-old season by 13 Elo points,  a record previously held by Big Star in 2012 (760). As a matter of fact, Explosion W completed his season as a nine-year-old with a higher Elo (773) than James Kann Cruz currently (771) has eight months into the season as a 10-year-old. 

4 months - 9 competitions - 34 Elo points

Yet, Explosion didn't start building his monumental ten-year-old Elo until May 17th 2019, when he entered the LGCT of Madrid on an Elo of 770, one point short of James Kann Cruz's current Elo.

Knowing that Explosion W reached the record-breaking Elo of 804 on September 28th of that same year meant that only took him exactly 4 months and 11 days to gain 34 Elo points. With exactly 4 months and 11 days of 2023 left, can James Kann Cruz replicate Explosion W's claim to fame?