The Aachen equation: Three horses, one winner

Three horses are likely to define this championship: fischerChipmunk FRH, London 52, and Lordships Graffalo. Between them, they've racked up 37 starts at the elite long-format level, won 16 of them, and only failed to complete three times. This is a consistent, high-performing generation. But they're not consistent in the same way, and that's where it gets interesting.

So why are these three the ones to watch?

Because the record says so. Across 4*-L and 5*-L competition, these three horses have 34 completions from 37 starts, 16 wins, and 28 top-five finishes. Each has won at the highest level. Each has had a very public bad day. But taken as a whole, the body of work is remarkable and the differences between them come down to profile rather than quality.

Who's likely to lead after dressage?

Chipmunk tends to set the tone. His long-format dressage average sits around 20.8, with London just behind on 23.1 and Lordships a little further back on 24.6. At Paris, Laura Collett and Michael Jung were producing tests in at the 17 mark. That's elite-level dressage and the kind of score that can put a result to bed before the cross country even starts.

Graffalo is perfectly capable of going into the low 20s, but he doesn't regularly open on an 18. And if the leaders are sitting on 18 or 19 while he's on 25, that's a seven-mark gap. Seven is a problem. Four is something you can work with.

fischerChipmunk FRH & Michael Jung after scoring an 18.3 at the 2025 European Championships.

Why does four marks matter so much specifically?

Because one rail in show jumping costs you four penalties, and at championship level, two rails is genuinely unusual. Chipmunk has only had two rails down three times in his long-format career. London's double-rail moment came across multiple rounds at Tokyo. The realistic base case for both of them is a clear round or one fence down.

So if Graffalo is within four marks after dressage and he jumps clear while one of the others has a rail, the leaderboard flips. If he's seven back, a single rail doesn't move the needle enough. That's why what happens in the dressage arena on day one is, in a very real sense, deciding the championship.

What about cross country? Can anyone pull away there?

All three are exceptional  in the cross-country phase. Graffalo has the cleanest pure jumping record of the three at around 90% clear, with Chipmunk on 79% and London on 77%. Each has had one very memorable championship moment—Tokyo, Pratoni, Paris—but across 37 combined starts, there are only three non-completions. Time faults, conditions, the weight of the occasion - these things could all play a role. But statistically, a dramatic cross country swing is unlikely. Which, again, puts the pressure back on dressage.

Lordships Graffalo & Ros Canter jumping clear inside the time at Defender Burghley.

Is Graffalo genuinely the best show jumper of the three?

The numbers suggest yes. His average show jumping penalties per run in long format is 0.8. London's is 2.2, Chipmunk's is 3.1. He leaves rails up. That's not nothing. In fact, at a championship where everything else is tight, it might be everything. If he arrives at the show jumping within touching distance, he's extremely hard to beat.

Does age come into it?

Chipmunk and London will be 17 and 18 in 2026; seasoned, experienced, comfortable in a big atmosphere. Graffalo is younger. Experience helps you handle the noise; youth helps you handle the mileage. But unless something unexpected happens on cross country day, this championship is probably going to come down to margins rather than fitness or freshness.

London 52 & Laura Collett at the 2025 European Championships where they won gold.

So how does it actually play out?

It depends almost entirely on where everyone sits after dressage. If Graffalo is six or seven back, he needs something to go wrong for the others and that's not a position you want to be chasing from. If he's within three or four, everything is live going into the final day and that's when his show jumping record becomes a genuine weapon.

Chipmunk and London win championships from the front. Lordships wins them from the finish. The question is simply whether he can stay close enough through the first two days to make day three his.

The halt at X on day one might look like a formality. It isn't.

Did you know?

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