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<p>The day of the final has arrived. After three rounds of high-pressure jumping, the 2025 European Championship reaches its dramatic conclusion today at Casas Novas, where a new champion, or perhaps a repeat one, will be crowned. The stakes could not be higher: 13 combinations sit within four penalties of the lead, the leaderboard is tightly packed, and the stage is set for a thrilling showdown. History shows that position after Day 3 matters, but with clear rounds more plentiful this year than usual, today could defy the script.</p>
<h2>History Favors the Front-Runners</h2>
<p>Over the past seven editions of this championship, only one eventual gold medalist ranked outside the top three heading into the final day. The last six champions have all been on the podium after Day 3, a powerful trend that underscores the importance of position at this stage.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/3608a396-4f82-49e6-b54c-cdfceaa288ef.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="'25 Europeans   Grid Posts (28)"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Richard Vogel and United Touch S hold the narrowest of leads with an impressive score of just 0.01 penalties and a win chance of 28% according to the EquiRatings Prediction Centre. But close behind are Scott Brash &amp; Hello Folie in silver position on 1.08 penalties and defending champion Steve Guerdat on Albfuehren&rsquo;s Iashin Sitte in bronze on 1.19 penalties. History suggests this leading trio are best positioned to turn their advantage into gold.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/a8d2afb6-8d85-454a-9c05-65f292a0d590.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="'25 Europeans   Grid Posts (26)"></p>
<h2>&nbsp;</h2>
<h2><br>Can Guerdat Make History Again?</h2>
<p>Only two riders, David Broome and Paul Schockem&ouml;hle, have ever defended an Individual European title, and no one has done it for 40 years. Steve Guerdat has the chance to join this exclusive club and, remarkably, to do so on a different horse than he rode to victory in 2023. Guerdat and Albfuehren's Iashin Sitte have been faultless so far and are one of ten combinations who haven&rsquo;t incurred a penalty all week, a record that keeps the defending champion firmly in contention. But with a win probability of 9%, he will need to deliver two more clear rounds and withstand fierce pressure from riders hungry for their first European title.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/0c9443c2-3bce-4d55-83c1-c52b9efae2b5.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="22"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Tight Margins and Rising Stars</h2>
<p>The depth of this final field adds to the unpredictability. Ten pairs, including Gilles Thomas and Ermitage Kalone, who helped Belgium secure Team Gold, have jumped clear throughout the championship. Three female athletes, Nadja Peter Steiner, Janika Sprunger, and Sophie Hinners, are all within one rail of the lead, hoping to become the first female medallist since Meredith Michaels-Beerbaum&rsquo;s gold in 2007.</p>
<p>Statistically, clear rounds have been more common this week than the historical averages, but over the past 7 European Championships the Individual Final clear rates averages at 21% for Round 1 and 28% for Round 2, suggesting today&rsquo;s contest could remain intensely close right to the finish.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/e80e6281-beb7-436b-b281-04c4f5133e63.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="6"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The margins are tight this year. The Top 13 going into the Individual Final are within 1 rail of one another and 10 pairs have not yet knocked a single rail throughout the championship.&nbsp;In 2023 only 5 combinations were within a rail of one another going into the Milan Individual Final, and 11 within two rails, while only 4 pairs had not incurred a penalty over the first three rounds of competition.</p>
<p>The competition is wide open &amp; the Individual Final promises a thrilling competition.</p>

The Final Battle: Who Will Claim European Gold at Casas Novas?

<p>A shock withdrawal, tight team battles, and standout performances. Day 2 at the 2025 European Championships delivered early twists, and Day 3 promises even more intrigue as the team competition intensifies.</p>
<h2>A Strong Start with an Unexpected Twist</h2>
<p>The 2025 Jumping European Championships in A Coru&ntilde;a wasted no time delivering headlines. Day 1 concluded with Ireland&rsquo;s Daniel Coyle and Legacy at the top of the individual leaderboard, only for Coyle to withdraw before Day 2 began. The shock exit of the Irish rider immediately reshaped the individual picture and handed the lead to Germany&rsquo;s Richard Vogel and his brilliant partner, United Touch S, sitting on an almost perfect 0.01 penalties.</p>
<h2>Course Challenges Rise on Day 2</h2>
<p>While Day 1&rsquo;s speed competition set the tone, Day 2 has already revealed a tougher test. Among the first 17 individual riders, early statistics showed a clear rate of 47%, remarkable given that at previous European Championships Round 2 typically clears at around 22%. Across 86 combinations, the class clear rate eventually settled at 40%. This course, and this field, have so far delivered riding of the highest quality.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Top Teams Rise to the Occasion</h2>
<p>In team competition, <strong>Great Britain</strong> remains firmly in control, holding the smallest post-Day 2 score (3.96 penalties) recorded at a European Championship in the past two decades. Their consistency has been remarkable, with three clear rounds today ensuring they stayed in pole position.</p>
<p>Close behind them, <strong>Germany </strong>delivered an impeccable performance, with all four riders jumping clear. Their win probability surged to 41% after the first two rounds, reflecting their clinical execution under pressure.</p>
<p><strong>Belgium </strong>also impressed, holding onto their Day 1 score with a series of superb clears, ensuring they remain right in the hunt at 4.61 penalties.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/3469b095-49dd-421d-961d-0fcda184cf13.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="'25 Europeans   Grid Posts (22)"></p>
<p>At the other end of the standings, several teams were fighting for a qualification spot for Friday&rsquo;s Team Final, including Denmark, Norway, Austria and defending champions, Sweden. Sweden eventually managed to do just enough to make it into the Team Final, currently lying in 10th place on a score of 23.93 penalties, making it unlikely they will successfully defend their European title today.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>The Individual Battle Tightens</h2>
<p>Coyle&rsquo;s withdrawal left <strong>Richard Vogel &amp; United Touch S</strong> (0.01 penalties) in the individual lead, but the standings remain tightly packed. <strong>Donald Whitaker and Millfield Colette</strong> (0.67 penalties) sit in silver medal position, with France&rsquo;s<strong> Julien Epaillard and Donatello d&rsquo;Auge</strong> (0.89 penalties) in bronze position after Day 2.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/ca47772b-8cf6-486a-b5bb-ac5f25eeef93.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="'25 Europeans   Grid Posts (21)"></p>
<p>History suggests that holding the Day 2 lead can be a precarious place. Across the last seven European Championships, only one rider leading after Day 2 went on to secure individual gold (Peder Fredricson with H&amp;M All In in 2017)</p>
<p>A striking statistic underscores how competitive this championship remains: 25 riders are within 4 penalties of the lead as we head into Day 3, and 22 combinations have jumped clear rounds over the first two days. There is a lot of jumping left to be done and the margins are tight.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Historic Records in Play</h2>
<p>Richard Vogel&rsquo;s lead is a landmark in itself. He is the first German rider to head the European Championship leaderboard after Day 2 since Carsten-Otto Nagel in 2011.</p>
<p>In the team competition, Great Britain&rsquo;s current position is historic too: this is the first time in 18 years that the Day 1 leader has retained their lead after Day 2. The last team to achieve this was Germany in 2007, though they ultimately lost out to the Netherlands on the final day.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Looking Ahead to the Team Final</h2>
<p>With no team managing to stay faultless across Day 2 and Day 3 at the last seven European Championships, tomorrow&rsquo;s final is far from decided. Great Britain, Germany, and Belgium hold commanding positions, but Ireland, France, and Switzerland remain in striking distance.</p>
<p>In the individual contest, riders like Christian Kukuk (GER), Steve Guerdat (SUI), and Gilles Thomas (BEL) are lurking near the top and will fancy their chances. Guerdat, the defending European Champion, sits fifth with Albf&uuml;hren&rsquo;s Iashin Sitte, aiming to become only the third rider in history to win back-to-back European individual title, and the first to do so on different horses.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The story of the 2025 European Championships is already rich with drama and data. With Great Britain setting the pace and Germany applying relentless pressure, Friday&rsquo;s team final promises a thrilling climax. In the individual race, history is against the leader, but anything can happen at Casas Novas.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>

High Stakes, High Standards: How Day 2 Played out in La Coruna

<p>The first day of competition at the 2025 Jumping European Championships delivered tight scores, bold riding, and statistical intrigue. With 37 riders within just one rail of the leader, a figure unseen in recent editions, A Coru&ntilde;a promises one of the most thrilling championships in years. As both teams and individuals position themselves for the days ahead, the data reminds us: a fast start is valuable, but far from decisive.</p>
<h2>A Record Crowd Within Reach: 37 Riders Inside Four Faults</h2>
<p>After Day 1&rsquo;s speed class, Ireland&rsquo;s Daniel Coyle and Legacy hold the slimmest of leads, sitting on a score of 0.00 penalties, just 0.01 ahead of Germany&rsquo;s Richard Vogel and United Touch S, the new favourite for gold according to the EquiRatings Prediction Centre. Great Britain&rsquo;s Donald Whitaker and Millfield Colette round out the top three on 0.67 penalties.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/e584df91-45c6-4fa5-a18a-004e53f22c22.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="'25 Europeans   Grid Posts (11)"></p>
<p>An extraordinary 37 combinations finished within four penalties of the leader, the most since before 2011. For context, 34 riders were inside that margin in both 2023 and 2015. This broad competitive pack ensures that the championship is wide open heading into Day 2.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Team Leaders, but Will They Stay There?</h2>
<p>In the team standings, Great Britain leads after Day 1 on 3.96 penalties, chased closely by Germany (4.19) and Belgium (4.61). While the British squad holds pole position, history provides caution: only once in the last seven editions did a Day 1 team leader go on to claim gold (Sweden in 2023).</p>
<p>Despite sitting second, Germany enters Day 2 as favourites for team gold, with a 35% predicted win chance and a 69% chance of medalling according to the EquiRatings Prediction Centre. Belgium (22%) and Britain (17%) remain firmly in the mix.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/55b4c3f3-1a38-4df9-9012-94a7f8f9198f.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="'25 Europeans   Grid Posts (9)"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Individual History: The Day 1 Paradox</h2>
<p>The first round is always influential, but rarely defining. Of the last seven European individual champions, only one was leading after Day 1: <strong>Peder Fredricson and H&amp;M All In in 2017</strong>. Even Steve Guerdat and Dynamix de Belheme, who delivered the most dominant winning margin of the last decade in 2023, started from fourth place.</p>
<p>The benchmark for a medal position is clear: since 2011, individual medallists average 1.5 penalties after Day 1. Only two medallists led after Day 1, and only one medallist came from beyond the four-fault range. With 37 riders inside four faults this year, the competition remains tantalisingly open.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Christian Kukuk&rsquo;s Historic Opportunity</h2>
<p>Among those close to the leaders is Christian Kukuk, sitting ninth after Day 1 with Just Be Gentle. If Kukuk can go on to claim gold, he would become the first rider in 37 years to simultaneously hold the individual European and Olympic titles, joining an elite club of just three riders in history.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/1aa779b9-8b29-4d67-87c0-863f24fd10a4.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="'25 Europeans   Grid Posts (18)"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Previewing Day 2: Expect Fewer Clears</h2>
<p>Looking ahead, Day 2 typically presents a sterner test. The average clear rate over the last seven championships is just 21% for this phase, which suggests approximately 15&ndash;18 clears expected on Thursday. Clear rounds tend to rise slightly on Day 3 (26% for team riders), meaning consistency over the next two days will be key for those hunting medals.</p>
<p>For teams, 77% of those inside the top five after Day 1 have historically stayed in those positions through to the final day. Expect the competition for top-10 spots to intensify today with qualification for the final round at stake.</p>
<p><br>The Day 1 leaderboard at A Coru&ntilde;a has delivered a congested and compelling picture, with history warning us that the path to gold rarely runs smooth from the outset. With medal positions far from settled and both teams and individuals needing to navigate a demanding path ahead, Thursday&rsquo;s action will shape, but not decide, the 2025 European Championship story. Stay tuned for what promises to be a fascinating Day 2.</p>
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Tight Scores, Tight History: Day 1 Ends, the Challenge Begins

<p>The stage is set. The 2025 Jumping European Championships at Casas Novas in La Coru&ntilde;a are almost here, and anticipation is building around who will capture individual gold. With legends, rising stars, and a wealth of championship experience lining up, this year&rsquo;s battle promises drama, precision, and some truly elite sport.</p>
<h2><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/ed414d93-1ff2-46fa-9059-d3a1c09672f6.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="'25 Europeans   Grid Posts (4)"></h2>
<h2><br>Martin Fuchs &amp; Conner Jei</h2>
<p>Martin Fuchs, the 2019 European Champion on Clooney, returns seeking a second gold meda, this time with Conner Jei. While not his top-rated mount, Leone Jei, with whom Fuchs just won the Rolex Grand Prix of Aachen, Conner Jei has proven winning credentials of his own.</p>
<p>Rated 749 on the EquiRatings Elo (ranked 36th in the world), this horse has delivered a solid clear rate of 50% across 64 five-star 160 &nbsp;rounds. Conner Jei and Fuchs were victorious in Bordeaux&rsquo;s World Cup in February and won the Rolex Grand Prix of Dublin last year, signaling their readiness for another major title bid.</p>
<p>With an 8% predicted win chance and an 18% medal chance, Conner Jei tops the prediction center&rsquo;s leaderboard heading into La Coru&ntilde;a.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Maikel van der Vleuten &amp; Beauville Z N.O.P.</h2>
<p>If there&rsquo;s a horse to beat on paper, it&rsquo;s Beauville Z N.O.P., the highest-rated horse in the field on an Elo of 787, third in the world overall.</p>
<p>This Dutch duo is among the most decorated in the sport: bronze medallists at both the Tokyo 2021 and Paris 2024 Olympics, and at the 2022 Herning World Championships. Remarkably, the only individual medal missing from their collection is a European one.</p>
<p>They&rsquo;ve jumped over 100 rounds at five-star 1.60m level together, with a superb clear rate of 59%. With a 7% win chance and 17% medal chance, they come to La Coru&ntilde;a as one of the most experienced and consistent pairs in the championship.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Gilles Thomas &amp; Ermitage Kalone</h2>
<p>One of the revelations of 2024, Gilles Thomas and the eye-catching stallion Ermitage Kalone arrive in form after winning their first five-star Grand Prix at the Longines Global Champions Tour of Paris.</p>
<p>Despite a smaller career record at this level (just a quarter of the rounds Beauville has jumped), their clear rate of 58% matches the very best, and with an Elo of 774, Ermitage Kalone ranks among the world&rsquo;s top 10 horses.</p>
<p>Belgium has never claimed individual European gold, could Thomas and Ermitage Kalone be the first? The Prediction Centre rates their win chance at 7% and their medal chance at 18%, marking them as a serious contender.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Darragh Kenny &amp; Eddy Blue</h2>
<p>Ireland&rsquo;s leading individual hope is Darragh Kenny with Eddy Blue, the top-rated Irish combination on an Elo of 757 (Top 30 globally).</p>
<p>Winners of the London World Cup late in 2024, they&rsquo;ve had a strong 2025 season, maintaining an outstanding 63% clear rate over five-star 1.60m rounds so far this year.</p>
<p>Ireland hasn&rsquo;t won an individual European gold since Peter Charles and La Ina in 1995, but this pair could change that narrative. With a 7% win chance and 18% medal chance, they&rsquo;ll be watched closely.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>The Scene Is Set</h2>
<p>As the championship unfolds at Casas Novas starting today, history, form, and talent converge in La Coru&ntilde;a. None of the last ten European champions completed their championship on a zero-penalty score, and just one of the past seven was leading after Day 1, reminders that consistency and resilience, not just brilliance on paper, will decide who stands atop the podium this weekend.</p>
<p>The favourites are strong, but at a championship like this, surprises are guaranteed.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>

Eyes on the Gold: Who are the Favourites for European Glory?

<p>Consistency is key at the FEI Jumping European Championship, gold medals are won through smart, consistent riding and score management over five challenging rounds. As we look ahead to La Coru&ntilde;a 2025, a deep dive into the data from the last ten editions shows that finishing on a perfect score of zero hasn&rsquo;t been necessary to stand on top of the podium. Instead, the story is one of tight margins, steady performances, and how riders absorb pressure as well as penalties.</p>
<h2>The Story Behind the Scores</h2>
<p>None of the past ten European Champions completed the week on a zero score. Even more interesting: only two went on to finish the championship on their Day 1 score: <strong>Meredith Michaels-Beerbaum &amp; Shutterfly</strong> in 2007, and defending champion <strong>Steve Guerdat &amp; Dynamix de Belheme</strong> in 2023.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Both <strong>Roger-Yves Bost</strong> (2013) and <strong>Jeroen Dubbeldam</strong> (2015) avoided knocking down a single rail all week but picked up time penalties throughout the week. The trend is clear: faults are likely to happen, whether rails or time faults, and winning is about keeping those penalties under control across multiple rounds.</p>
<p>While scores have varied; from Guerdat&rsquo;s low 0.43 penalties to Kevin Staut&rsquo;s 9.42 in 2009, what remains consistent is how small the margins between gold and silver tend to be. The average winning margin across the last ten editions is under two penalties. In 2019, Martin Fuchs won by just 0.16 penalties, while Guerdat&rsquo;s 3.88-penalty cushion in 2023 was the largest of the past two decades. These fine margins mean that every time fault or pole down carries real weight at this level.&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/575b4976-1412-4d36-a8b8-33f6bfce5719.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="'25 Europeans   Grid Posts"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>How important is Day 1?</h2>
<p>Day 1 doesn&rsquo;t dictate destiny at the European Championships. Among the last 7 champions, only <strong>Peder Fredricson &amp; H&amp;M All In</strong> were leading after the opening round in 2017, while 2 years later <strong>Martin Fuchs and Clooney 51</strong> ranked as low as 20th place after Day 1 before climbing to gold. Even Steve Guerdat and Dynamix de Belheme, who would go on to win by the largest margin of the past decade, started their week in fourth. The data shows that while a strong start helps, riders don&rsquo;t need to be at the top from the outset to finish there.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/51cf4268-1652-4669-a6b1-1f938fbc9a90.png?width=1080&amp;height=1350" alt="6"></p>

The Margins Behind the Medals: The Last 10 European Champions

<p>Germany was the team to beat. Now, following the withdrawal of their horse on form, the European Championship leaderboard looks very different. The question on everyone&rsquo;s mind: is this the moment Belgium take control?&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Messi Out, and Germany Feels It</h2>
<p>Just days after retiring during the Longines League of Nations in Rotterdam, Janne Friederike Meyer-Zimmermann confirmed that Messi van&rsquo;t Ruytershof will not be heading to La Coru&ntilde;a. In a heartfelt post, she wrote: <em>&ldquo;Messi is not right and needs a break&hellip; we&rsquo;ll give him all the time he needs.&rdquo;</em></p>
<p>From a performance perspective, the impact is immediate. Messi had the strongest recent form of any of Germany&rsquo;s nominated combinations with 13 clears at five-star 160 level from 18 rounds (71% clear rate) in the last 12 months. With the loss of Messi, Germany&rsquo;s win chance drops from 23% to 14%, and their podium chance from 53% to 41%. They still bring class in <strong>United Touch S</strong> (775) and potentially <strong>Iron Dames My Prins</strong> (760) but without Messi, the team loses its statistical spearhead.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/122699ea-73e5-475a-a672-956d801e681e.png?width=2160&amp;height=1350" alt="How the Team Win Chances Changes After Germany&rsquo;s Loss of Messi Van&rsquo;t Ruytershof"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Belgium Take the Lead</h2>
<p>Belgium had already been lurking near the top of the projections. With all their key contenders in play, they now step forward as outright favourites. Their win probability rises to 20%, and their podium likelihood reaches 47%.</p>
<p>This isn&rsquo;t just about Messi&rsquo;s absence, it&rsquo;s about Belgium&rsquo;s consistency and strength in depth. Across their top four combinations, Belgium brings a blend of experienced championship performers and horses trending upward in form.</p>
<p>Belgium was the first nation to announce their definite team for the Jumping European Championships in La Coruna.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/9c9c5355-48b7-4cdc-b671-b4161686a170.png?width=1412&amp;height=860" alt="Hn M Zk the Belgian Team for the 2025 Jumping European Championships in La Coruna"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Ireland on the Rise Too</h2>
<p>The domino effect of Messi&rsquo;s withdrawal doesn&rsquo;t stop with Belgium. Ireland quietly becomes one of the biggest movers, climbing to an 18% win chance, now just two percentage points behind Belgium.</p>
<p>With potential rising stars like<strong> ESI Rocky</strong> &amp; <strong>Qonquest de Rigo</strong> who will likely be joined by seasoned competitors such as Darragh Kenny, Cian O&rsquo;Connor and/or Denis Lynch, Ireland&rsquo;s nominated squad holds both depth and promise. Their collective upward trend has them primed to capitalise if any other favourites falter.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Messi&rsquo;s early exit from the European Championship story changes everything. The individual favourite is out and the team landscape is suddenly more open than ever. As team selections approach and La Coru&ntilde;a draws closer, the numbers are shifting, and so is the pressure.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>

La Coruña 2025: Is Germany’s Loss Belgium’s Gain?

<p>With just six weeks until the Longines FEI Jumping European Championship arrives in La Coruna, the team at EquiRatings have done a deep-dive into the team landscape. Who would arrive as favourites if every nation fields its four highest-rated horse-and-rider combinations?</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/3ff29105-db54-4421-8e9e-4671d924e535.png?width=844&amp;height=990" alt="0 Dj Hk if Every Nation Brought Their Four Top Rated Combinations to the European Championships Who Would Be on Top "></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Germany Ahead</h2>
<p>By averaging the EquiRatings Elo rating of each country&rsquo;s top quartet (limited to one horse per athlete), Germany emerges with a Team Elo rating of 769. Their pack is spearheaded by Richard Vogel&rsquo;s United Touch S (775) and flanked by the formidable trio of Messi van &lsquo;t Ruytershof (770) for JF Meyer-Zimmermann, Killer Queen VDM (766) for Daniel Deusser and Iron Dames Dialou Blue PS (763) for Katrin Eckermann.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/f0ad93a1-533a-4fa7-8f73-bcb2f6430f35.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="1"></p>
<p>The battle for a spot on the German European team will be a tough one, however, with almost 20 German horses ranking among the Top 100 rated horses in the world. In a world where only the top-rated combinations for each nation make the team, the German team will have to head to La Coruna without their reigning Olympic Champions, Christian Kukuk &amp; Checker 47, currently on an Elo rating of 756.&nbsp;</p>
<p>With so many strong combinations in one nation, Germany&rsquo;s depth could turn out to be a mixed blessing and with other strong nations like Belgium &amp; the Netherlands ready for battle, Germany&rsquo;s team selection will be vital to ensure European success.</p>
<h2><br>Belgium &amp; the Netherlands in the Chase</h2>
<p>Like Germany, Belgium boasts enviable depth with a Team Elo of 764, spearheaded by Gilles Thomas&rsquo; dreamy stallion, Ermitage Kalone (775). While sporting an impressive Elo rating of 770, Belgium has a strong team member on paper in Gregory Wathelet&rsquo;s Bond Jamesbond de Hay, but will the pair&rsquo;s slip-up at World Cup Finals in Basel deprive them from a spot on the team this summer?</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/94eebd5d-c081-4e4f-8215-f708cbfaacad.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="2"></p>
<p>The Netherlands will likely lean on multi-medalist Beauville Z N.O.P. (782) &amp; Maikel van der Vleuten to bring the consistency and experience, alongside Harrie Smolders &amp; his Geneva Grand Prix winner, Monaco (775).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>The Challengers</h2>
<p>France (760) parade consistency through Donatello d&rsquo;Auge (776) and Cayman Jolly Jumper (768), both already major winners in 2025. Julien Epaillard &amp; Donatello d&rsquo;Auge became the 2025 World Cup Final Champions in Basel two months ago, while Simon Delestre &amp; Cayman Jolly Jumper scored back-to-back five-star Grand Prix victories in &lsquo;s Hertogenbosch and Paris, Saut Hermes. On the ratings, they would be joined by Dexter de Kerglenn &amp; Visconti du Telman, but with a remarkable run of recent form, Nina Mallevaey &amp; Nikka vd Bisschop (740) could command a spot on this team.</p>
<p>While Ireland are not in the leading form we found them in 12 months ago, they are always a force to be reckoned with in any team competition. If team leaders James Kann Cruz &amp; Legacy can find their pre-Paris form back, they can be a dangerous nation this summer.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/34585ed3-7ee4-4912-ad01-19ab2e660274.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="3"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Teams of Two Halves</h2>
<p>Sweden and Switzerland look like teams of two halves. Sweden&rsquo;s King Edward carries the record-breaking Elo rating of 813, while Switzerland counters with defending European Champion, Dynamix de Belheme, and the multiple five-star Grand Prix winner, Leone Jei.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/c9811a63-35e9-4484-965d-16c1bdcfd976.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="4"></p>
<p>The Reigning Team Olympic Champions, Team GB, have a real superstar in their midst with Ben Maher &amp; Point Break, the second-highest rated horse in the world currently. On ratings, however, the team lacks some depth to be among the favourites for a team victory after the sale of Tim Gredley&rsquo;s Imperial HBF and the retirement of Harry Charles&rsquo; Romeo 88. An underdog position has never stopped the Brits from chasing the gold though and with the momentum of their Paris success, no one would be surprised to see them top the leaderboard.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/0baaed34-59c3-4f89-b0f9-e64862ec84d0.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="5"></p>
<p>Those headline scores lift each nation&rsquo;s average, yet the lower two combinations on both rosters sit 30-plus points lower. That split means the super-stars must jump clear as expected, while the lower-rated pairs need to rise to the occasion in La Coruna to keep medal hopes alive.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2><br>The Underdogs</h2>
<p>Austria (723) and Italy (715) round out the ten nations in the study. Each arrives with standout firepower&mdash;think Max K&uuml;hner&rsquo;s Elektric Blue P (765) and Giulia Martinengo Marquet&rsquo;s Delta del&rsquo;Isle, but need their supporting acts to find an extra gear if they are to storm the podium come July.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/037b211f-cad9-4d1c-8516-50462d940e70.png?width=2240&amp;height=1260" alt="6"></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2><br>Why the &ldquo;Power Four&rdquo; matters</h2>
<p>The EquiRatings Elo rating is a predictive metric that weighs a combination&rsquo;s historical performance against the quality of competition faced.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s a fun thought experiment, but it also highlights where federations may have tough selection calls,&rdquo; explains EquiRatings co-founder Sam Watson. &ldquo;Germany&rsquo;s depth is well-known, yet you see Belgium and the Dutch basically level. Factor in the pressure of a championship environment&mdash;plus the inevitable late-season form shifts&mdash;and this looks wide open.&rdquo;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>The road to Casas Novas</h2>
<p>The Longines FEI Jumping European Championship runs 16&ndash;20 July 2025 at the iconic Casas Novas complex. National selectors have until early July to finalise their travelling squads, meaning campaigns at La Baule, Rotterdam &amp; Aachen could still reshape these numbers.</p>
<p>One thing is certain: if each nation unleashes its &ldquo;Power Four&rdquo;, the battle for team gold could produce the tightest finish Europe has witnessed in a decade. Fans in Galicia&mdash;and those tuning in worldwide&mdash;will not want to miss a single fence.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>

What the Elo Rating Can Already Tell Us About the Upcoming European Championships

<h1>Why Look Back?</h1>
<p>Statistics rarely give us the whole story, but they do reveal repeatable patterns. By digging into the pre‑championship data of the last seven editions, we can identify the traits that consistently surface on the podium.</p>
<p>Below, we recap the headline numbers from those years and translate them into practical take‑aways for 2025.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/dc3989e8-5382-4af0-a17a-cc3330e3d1e8.png?width=1674&amp;height=2630" alt="Jcddk the Podium Finishers of the Past 7 European Championships Their Form Heading Into the Championships"></p>
<h1><br>Digging Deeper: What the Numbers Tell Us</h1>
<h3>Underdogs are rare</h3>
<p>Since 2011, just two of the 21 podium finishers have arrived with an Elo rating below 700. Both stories underline how exceptional an upset it takes to buck the rating model:</p>
<p><strong>SFN Zenith &amp; Jeroen Dubbeldam</strong> (Gold, 2015) came in as the 42‑ranked pair on an Elo of 651, having logged only 2 clears from 10 pre‑European rounds at five-star 160 level. It is to be noted, however, that two of their non-clears were 1 time penalty rounds, showing they were more than capable of producing the clear over fences.</p>
<p><strong>Philipp Weishaupt&rsquo;s Zineday</strong> (Silver, 2023) entered the Milan European Championships as one of the youngest horses in the field at 9 years old. While his Elo rating of 694 at the start of the Championships put him among the top-rated horses in his age category, he ranked 35th in the field in Milan. Yet his individual medal was not a complete surprise as Zineday entered the Europeans on extremely strong five-star 160 form with 5 clears from 7 rounds jumped. Throughout the Milan Championships, the pair only knocked one rail over 5 rounds of jumping.</p>
<p>The average Elo rating of the individual European medalists sits around the 734 mark. Ratings may not crown the champion every time, but they rarely miss completely.</p>
<h3><br>When the Ratings Lined Up: Gothenburg 2017</h3>
<p>The Elo rating was virtually clairvoyant during the 2017 edition of the FEI Jumping European Championships held in Gothenburg where there podium mirrored the ratings and <strong>Peder Fredricson &amp; H&amp;M All In</strong> left with the Individual Gold medal when they entered as the top-rated pair on an Elo of 779.</p>
<p>The other podium places were filled with horses who entered on top Elo ratings: silver went to Harrie Smolders &amp; Don VHP who entered as the third-rated pair in Gothenburg on an Elo of 764, while Cian O&rsquo;Connor &amp; Good Luck picked up bronze after entering as 5th rated in the field on an Elo of 761.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>How the Champions Managed their Campaign</h3>
<p>Winners favour a moderate campaign. Every gold‑medallist since 2011 prepped on 6 to 11 rounds at five-star 160 level (averaging approximately 10). None came in short of work (&lt; 5) or run (&gt; 15). A balanced schedule, neither rusty nor run‑ragged, has been the sweet spot.</p>
<p>Clear‑round dominance doesn&rsquo;t guarantee gold. In four editions (2011, 2019, 2021, 2023) the horse with the highest pre‑event clear‑rate stood on the silver step. Champions have averaged a workman‑like 47 % clear rate at five-star 160 level in the 7-8 months leading up the the championship, proving you don&rsquo;t need a 70 %+ strike‑rate to win Europeans.</p>

From Madrid to Milan: What Recent European Champions Tell Us About La Coruña 2025

<p>The outdoor arenas in La Coru&ntilde;a have long tested the competitors at CSI4* and CSI5* level. Now, as the stakes rise, the stats tell us who&rsquo;s already thriving here and who could be primed to deliver in championship conditions.</p>
<h2>Clear Rate Kings: The Most Efficient at 160 Level</h2>
<p>When it comes to jumping clear at 160 level outdoors in Casas Novas, European names dominate the top tier, a promising sign as the championship nears.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/64413da6-fb94-49b8-945e-4e0aa11969e4.png?width=1310&amp;height=1102" alt="Q Bz Yi Riders With the Highest 160 Clear Rates at Csi Casas Novas Since 2010 "></p>
<p><strong>Maikel van der Vleuten</strong> (NED) stands tall with a 71% clear rate at 160 (5 clears from 7 rounds), one of the most efficient European riders at this venue in recent years. He will likely also be a strong contender for this year&rsquo;s European Championship. His top mount Beauville Z N.O.P. is the current third-rated horse in the world and is already a triple medalist at major championships, picking up individual bronze at the Olympic Games of Tokyo and Paris, as well as at the World Championships in Herning. They may be on a mission to add some European colours to their impressive record.</p>
<p><strong>Julien Epaillard </strong>(FRA) also features, with a 46% clear rate at 160 and two big wins in 2015. Known for his ability to turn speed into success, his record suggests he&rsquo;s always a threat here.</p>
<h2><br>Casas Novas Regulars</h2>
<p>This group of riders has returned to compete on the outdoor arena in Casas Novas again and again, combining experience with performance at this venue. For many, it&rsquo;s not just about a standout weekend, it&rsquo;s about showing up year after year and delivering results across horses, courses, and conditions.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/9a055bc4-b5b7-4078-aba9-0ca7042f13ad.png?width=1306&amp;height=1204" alt="Fcd Xg Riders With the Most Rounds Jumped at Csi Casas Novas "></p>
<p>Spanish riders dominate this list, led by <strong>Sergio &Aacute;lvarez Moya</strong> and <strong>Eduardo &Aacute;lvarez Aznar,</strong> who top the table for most rounds jumped at this venue at 150 level or higher. With 39 and 34 rounds respectively, they&rsquo;ve built long-term records here, each producing double-digit clear rounds.</p>
<p><strong>Julio Arias Cueva</strong> stands out with both volume and efficiency. A total of 13 clears from 28 rounds gives him a 46% clear rate, one of the strongest on the list and a promising marker heading into a home championship.</p>
<p>Among the international regulars,<strong> Julien Epaillard</strong> (FRA) has logged 29 rounds with a clear rate of 38%, backed by two big wins in 2015. The reigning World Cup Champion will definitely be on the watchlist for the European Championships this summer. While the 2023 Individual Bronze European medalist will not return on his championship mount Dubai du Cedre, he will likely aim to compete at Casas Novas this year with his incredible Donatello d&rsquo;Auge. With a World Cup Finals title in their back pocket and Julien&rsquo;s vast experience at this venue, they could be one of the favourites for a European title.</p>
<p>These riders know the venue, the atmosphere, and the challenges and that kind of familiarity could be a major asset when medals are on the line.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Podium Pedigree: Riders Who&rsquo;ve Won Here Before</h2>
<p>Clear rounds are one thing, winning is another.</p>
<p><img src="https://admin.equiratings.com/assets/2afc4338-c49f-447c-8982-9125faf07f44.png?width=1448&amp;height=3770" alt="I Yzy1 All Outdoor Winners at Casas Novas Since 2010"></p>
<p><strong>Bertram Allen</strong> (IRL) was dominant in 2023, winning boththe CSI5* Grand Prix as the Qualifier classes with Pacino Amiro. While Pacino Amiro is only just recovering from injury, Bertram&rsquo;s up-and-coming Qonquest de Rigo has recently taken over as the top-rated nine-year-old in the world. While nine might seem young to be competing in a European Championship, Pacino Amiro was the same age when he represented Team Ireland at the Tokyo Olympic Games.</p>
<p><strong>Victor Bettendorf </strong>(LUX) could be a dark horse for 2025. He had a breakout year in 2023&ndash;2024 at Casas Novas, with two CSI4* and CSI5* wins across two horses. While he is no longer partnered with his record-breaking mare, Foxy de la Roque, Victor has proven time and time again to be able to rise to the occasion across different mounts.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>What It All Means for 2025</h2>
<p>As the European Championships approach, these numbers shine a spotlight on Europe&rsquo;s most reliable outdoor performers at Casas Novas. Riders like Maikel van der Vleuten, Julien Epaillard, Bertram Allen, and Spain&rsquo;s own Julio Arias Cueva might just be one step ahead of their competitors when it comes to success in La Coruna.</p>

Casas Novas Contenders: Proven Performers at the European Championship Venue

<p>In the latest episode of the EquiRatings Jumping Podcast, Sam Watson and Charlotte Smet take a considered and insightful look at what the 2025 European Championships in La Coru&ntilde;a might hold for the continent&rsquo;s leading nations in show jumping. With a rare pause in the five-star calendar, this episode shifts focus from current competitions to potential selections and emerging trends within the top nine European teams based on current ratings and performance data.</p>
<p>This early analysis offers valuable perspective on how the strongest national squads are shaping up just months ahead of the Championships.</p>
<h2>Listen Across All Podcast Platforms</h2>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><iframe style="border: none;" title="Embed Player" src="https://play.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/36253520/height/192/theme/modern/size/large/thumbnail/yes/custom-color/000000/time-start/00:00:00/playlist-height/200/direction/backward/download/yes/font-color/FFFFFF" width="100%" height="192" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p>
<h2>&nbsp;</h2>
<h2>A Strategic Forecast of Europe&rsquo;s Elite</h2>
<blockquote>
<p>&ldquo;We wanted to do a bit of a lay of the land: who&rsquo;s climbing, who&rsquo;s dropping, who looks stronger or weaker as a nation.&rdquo;&nbsp;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>At the heart of the episode is a comprehensive nation-by-nation analysis of Europe&rsquo;s leading contenders. While the selections are unofficial and purely based on current data and educated opinion, they offer a useful barometer of how things currently stand&mdash;and how much could still change in the coming months.</p>
<p>Listeners will gain insight into the balance between form and experience, the role of up-and-coming combinations, and the challenges selectors face in deciding between proven veterans and rising stars.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Noteworthy Observations &amp; Reflections</h2>
<blockquote>
<p>&ldquo;Steve Guerdat &amp; Dynamix de Belheme became European Champions by being the only combination not to knock a single rail over the entire championship in Milan.&rdquo;&nbsp;</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A reminder that, unlike the Olympics, consistency across multiple rounds defines success at the European Championships.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Closing Thoughts</h2>
<p>This early glimpse into potential European Championship line-ups serves as both a summary of the current competitive landscape and a compelling invitation to follow the months ahead. Team selections, changes in form, and strategic decisions are all still to come&mdash;but the foundations are being laid now.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<hr>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em>Listen to the EquiRatings Jumping Podcast on all main podcast platforms.&nbsp;</em></p>
<p><em>For more insights, updates, stats &amp; stories around the Longines Jumping European Championships 2025 in La Coruna, make sure to follow EquiRatings on the different platforms to get access to the latest information.</em></p>
<p><em>EquiRatings Jumping WhatsApp Channel:&nbsp;<a href="https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaByaVo3QxS7qLas323H">https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaByaVo3QxS7qLas323H</a></em><br><em>EquiRatings Instagram:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.instagram.com/equiratings/">https://www.instagram.com/equiratings/</a></em><br><em>EquiRatings Facebook:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.facebook.com/EquiRatings">https://www.facebook.com/EquiRatings</a></em><br><em>Official Website:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.equiratings.com/">www.equiratings.com</a></em></p>

FEI Jumping European Championships