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Badminton entries were announced yesterday. We ran the predictions straight away, curious to see the early call. These are the top Badminton 2023 win chances based on the current entries and their results to date. To see the win, podium and top 10 chance for each and every entry, just head to the <a href="https://prediction-centre.equiratings.com/">Eventing Prediction Centre</a>. We'll be updating predictions closer to go-time as well.&nbsp;
<iframe id="datawrapper-chart-OplRL" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" title="The top 10 win chances for Badminton 2023. This is the early call as of 20 March, the day entries were announced." src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OplRL/3/" height="765" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" aria-label="Table" data-external="1"></iframe>
Nicole, Diarm and Rosie react to these early predictions on the <a href="https://podfollow.com/equiratings-eventing-podcast" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EquiRatings Eventing Podcast</a>.
<iframe style="border: none;" title="Embed Player" src="https://play.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/26295462/height/192/theme/modern/size/large/thumbnail/yes/custom-color/f3f7fc/time-start/00:00:00/playlist-height/200/direction/backward/download/yes" width="100%" height="192" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe>
<h3>What stands out:</h3>
Laura Collett and London 52 (800 Elo) are at the top of the win chances. If the pair win for a second year in a row, history will repeat itself exactly 20 years on from Pippa Funnell and Supreme Rock&rsquo;s back-to-back Badminton wins in 2002 and 2023.
Swallow Springs (734) and Oliver Townend land higher than stablemate and five-star stalwart Ballaghmor Class (821). It&rsquo;s novel to see Ballaghmor Class outside the top 5 win chances.
Gemma Stevens and Jalapeno (673): For the first time since 2014, Gemma is here without Arctic Soul. With Jalapeno &ndash; who has strong CCI4* form and one previous CCI5* appearance (Pau 2019) &ndash; Gemma is back on the chase at Badminton.
Dacapo (672) and Laura are equal 7th on the win chances, giving Laura two in the top 10 (like Oliver). A Pau 2021 appearance is the only five-star under Dacapo&rsquo;s belt but he has (1) Laura at the helm (the Prediction Centre takes both horse and rider into account) and (2) strong CCI4* results.
See the full Badminton predictions on the <a href="https://prediction-centre.equiratings.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Eventing Prediction Centre</a> which will be updated pre-competition and after each phase.

Laura Collett aboard horse London 52 giving him a hug around the neck.

Our early predictions are live for Badminton 2023. Here are some initial thoughts.

Who is the best horse in the world? The world champion? The relentlessly consistent performer? The new and exciting wonderkid? Or maybe we shouldn&rsquo;t rule out the returning former champ? This question is the fundamental heartbeat of fan engagement in the sport. It isn&rsquo;t a particularly difficult task to create the shortlist and differing opinions are both essential (for engagement) and valid. While it is both a fun and interesting conversation, it isn&rsquo;t the real why behind measuring performance in equestrian sport.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h3>Objective insights</h3>
Part of the why is about the ability to rate and order the top 4,000 horses in the sport rather than just the top 4 horses. What the experienced and intuitive expert minds can manage is vital knowledge with nuances that no machine will compete with. But what the machine can process is a volume of information that no mind can keep up with. It can be worked around the clock to find trends and patterns in the data that experts can then build upon. The machine becomes the base of the pyramid that supports the knowledge layers on top.
<iframe id="datawrapper-chart-107M4" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" title="Top ten 160+ horses based on the EquiRatings Elo Rating" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/107M4/11/" height="648" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" aria-label="Table" data-external="1"></iframe>
The practical crunch-point for any team is around the 3rd, 4th and 5th best combinations in the squad depending on whether it is an Olympic (three) or normal (four) team selection. If there is an obvious gap between the final team position and the first reserve, then it&rsquo;s not such a big problem. It&rsquo;s highly unlikely that the decision will compromise the chance of success and it is probable that the person left off the team will understand why that decision was made.
When the call is close is when the objective and intelligent metrics really matter. The objectivity removes the emotion. In reality, there&rsquo;s probably very little difference between the two choices and so it&rsquo;s not about making the &lsquo;right&rsquo; or &lsquo;wrong&rsquo; choice. None of us have a crystal ball and no machine can predict the future with certainty. There might be more of a difference than you think, so of course there is the possibility of a marginal gain and an increase in the chance of success if your decision is backed by evidence and science. But often we are just trying to make the best decision and ensure that the sufferer can, in time, accept this decision and be motivated to improve rather than become disillusioned or negative towards management.
This is why the metrics used must matter. They must be intelligent and meaningful. This is not the time to quote a statistic that is meaningless. &lsquo;They finished 4th last time and you were only 6th in your last result&rsquo;. Firstly, one result is not a good predictor of future performance in this sport. Secondly, what was the context of that result? Even a five-star can vary from excruciatingly competitive to lacklustre at best in terms of quality. The course difficulty also varies and these factors matter. That&rsquo;s why EquiRatings designs the metrics that matter most. It&rsquo;s about more than predictive performance. It&rsquo;s about confidence from our clients.
<iframe id="datawrapper-chart-yncf4" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" title="Top ten CCI5* performances of 2022 based on the HPR" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yncf4/9/" height="626" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" aria-label="Table" data-external="1"></iframe>
<h3>Raising the bar</h3>
It&rsquo;s hard to get people to look beyond selection when it comes to our data analytics services. But this next sentence is a game-changer for any athlete or professional in the area of performance management. HOW we run faster is through training, nutrition and recovery, but WHY we run faster is the stopwatch. The objective, measurable and accountable truth of our performance output is what drives the human athlete to reach new heights. Opinions and feelings will vary and fluctuate from day to day. But a true measurement of performance is a constant that will truly inspire progress.
Know where your performance is now. Know how you compare to others and know whether or not you are improving. This knowledge is not just vital feedback and validation for your training system, it is the fuel that will inspire you to the next level.

Images of McLain Ward, Laura Collett, Michael Jung and Daniel Deusser against a grid-paper background with ruler markings. By EquiRatings.

Eventing

Our early predictions are live for Badminton 2023. Here are some initial thoughts.

Why measure?

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